Showing posts with label Real Estate. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Real Estate. Show all posts

Thursday, December 8, 2011

Kyle Bass on sovereign debt crisis and gold



Hayman Capital's Kyle Bass discusses the world economy, gold, global credit growth, and debt problems in US, Japan, and Europe at the AmeriCatalyst 2011 conference. 

Here's the, "Black Swan of Cairo" piece (Nassim Taleb and M. Blyth) cited by Bass.

Hat tip: Olivier at Tischendorf Letter for highlighting this clip and the article.

And if you missed it, here's Kyle's interview on BBC Hardtalk, skillfully dodging TV sensationalism and speculator-scapegoating attacks to address the euro crisis, the developed world's sovereign debt troubles, and how he is managing risk in his portfolio and hedging against problems in Japan. 

Quoth Bass: "Capitalism without bankruptcy is like Christianity without hell"

In other words, the Western world must atone for its past financial profligacy. Check it out.

Thursday, October 28, 2010

Jeremy Grantham 3Q letter - Night of the Living Fed

I know everyone's been looking for the recent 3Q 2010 GMO update from Jeremy Grantham, so I thought I'd post the Scribd doc. version here.

Tuck in and enjoy Grantham's macro view of the markets and the economy, from gold and commodities to real estate, stocks, and quantitative easing in, "Night of the Living Fed".


Night of the Living Fed Jeremy Grantham

Wednesday, October 6, 2010

CNBC chats w/ Kyle Bass, Alan Fournier

CNBC took their porta-studio down to Texas to chat with Kyle Bass (Hayman Capital) and Alan Fournier (Pennant Capital) at the Barefoot Economic Summit earlier today.

Since I got a heads up on this interview from some folks in my Twitter stream, I thought I'd track down the interview clips from CNBC and post them here for all to see.

Kyle Bass is well known for his big picture macro views, and he's made some pointed remarks recently about the path the US is heading down given the Fed's quantitative easing efforts. You'll hear Bass compare the monetary situation in the US with the hyperinflationary episode of Weimar Germany, and the more recent case of Zimbabwe, in this discussion.

This interview also offers him a chance to elaborate a bit on his recent call to avoid stocks (in general) and instead look to real assets, such as commodities and gold, in an inflationary environment. Enjoy the discussion and the insights from Bass and Fournier in this 3 part interview.

CNBC talks with Kyle Bass & Alan Fournier at the Barefoot Economic Summit: Part 1, Part 2, Part 3.










Tuesday, June 1, 2010

Notes: Flight to hard assets, Felix Zulauf interview, and BP spill

Tuesday's notes, culled from our Twitter stream and our favorite blogs and news sources:

1. Matthew Simmons was interviewed on the Financial Sense Newshour, where he discussed the BP Gulf oil spill disaster with host Jim Puplava. Simmons says the spill
"could be the biggest ecological catastrophe the world's ever had".

2. Here's a weekly chart of BP I posted to Chart.ly this afternoon. Note that today's down move, the biggest 1 day drop in BP since 1992, has brought BP's share price down toward its 2003 & 2009 lows.

3. Richard Russell says the world's wealthy are fleeing fiat currencies, piling their money into hard assets such as gold, silver, gems, art, and beachfront real estate.

4. Bear Mountain Bull wraps up today's market action, and is on the lookout for short setups. Randy also points us to Puru Saxena's piece on the latest bubble-blowing actions of the world's central banks. Be sure to check that out.

5. Eric King interviews investor Felix Zulauf on the European bailouts, gold, and more. Many of you probably know Zulauf from his frequent Barron's Roundtable appearances. Thanks to John at Controlled Greed for pointing out this rare interview.

6. Speaking of which, Controlled Greed also highlights Kevin Duffy's recent talk at the Mises Circle in New York entitled, "Navigating the Financial Markets with an Austrian Compass". Highly recommended.

That's it for now, gang. Enjoy the links, and let us hear your thoughts.

Tuesday, May 25, 2010

Marc Faber: final crisis yet to come

In Sunday's post, we highlighted the excellent audio presentations being uploaded from the recent Mises Circle conference in Manhattan.

Now that all of the speaker presentations have been uploaded, I especially wanted to highlight a talk given by Marc Faber entitled, "Mirror, Mirror on the Wall, When is the Next AIG to Fall?".



Be sure to listen to Marc's overview of US monetary policy and his discussion of how the Fed's easy money policies fueled the dot com bubble and the US real estate bubble, and why mainstream economists such as Greg Mankiw and James Galbraith are still cheering for more money printing and deficit spending.

You'll also hear Faber's views on the global economy, the growth of emerging markets and their commodity consumption, why Americans should have at least 50 per cent of their money invested outside of the US, and why "the final crisis has yet to come".

PowerPoint presentation slides accompany the audio lecture.

Related articles and posts:

1. Faber, Rogers, & Schiff on EU bailout - Finance Trends.

2. Marc Faber: FT.com interview - Finance Trends.

3. Marc Faber on crisis & geopolitical tensions (McAlvany podcast) - Finance Trends.

Wednesday, April 21, 2010

Market Shrinkology - Greatest Trade Ever



"Dr. Phil" Pearlman examines some of the important psychological trading themes at work in Greg Zuckerman's book, The Greatest Trade Ever, in this latest episode of Market Shrinkology on Stocktwits TV.

This particular episode happened to come at an interesting time, given the recent uproar over Goldman Sach's alleged impropriety in structuring and selling certain CDO deals to institutional clients, which Paulson & Co. (John Paulson is the central figure of Zuckerman's book) helped structure as a subprime vehicle they could sell short.

I think Phil does a great job of addressing not only some of the ethical questions that have cropped up around Paulson's trade in recent days, but the psychological factors (namely, "disposition effect") that were at work for investors like Paulson, Michael Burry, Andrew Lahde, and others who made their foray into this subprime short trade.

What does it take to enter and hold on to a big longer-term winning trade when almost everyone (including some of your investors) tells you you're wrong? Have a look as "(the real) Dr. Phil" deconstructs the psychology behind the Greatest Trade Ever.

Related articles and posts:

1. Interview: Greg Zuckerman (Greatest Trade Ever) - Fin. Trends.

2. Michael Burry: Betting the Blind Side - Vanity Fair.

3. FSN interview: Richard Eckert (Lahde Capital) - Finance Trends.

Friday, April 16, 2010

It's a Goldman kind of Friday

The SEC's civil suit against Goldman Sachs, accusing the firm of fraud in structuring certain mortgage backed CDOs (ABACUS 2007-AC1), has been the financial story of the day.

According to the SEC complaint, Goldman let a large hedge fund (Paulson & Co.) influence its structuring of synthetic CDOs, which were subsequently sold on to bullish clients (buyers such as pension funds and other large investors) under the premise of their being assembled by an independent party.

Wall Street Journal
has the details:

"According to the SEC, Goldman structured and marketed a synthetic collateralized-debt obligation, or CDO, that hinged on the performance of subprime residential-mortgage-backed securities. The CDO was created in early 2007 when the U.S. housing market and related securities were beginning to show signs of distress, the SEC complaint said.

"Undisclosed in the marketing materials and unbeknownst to investors, a large hedge fund, Paulson & Co. Inc., with economic interests directly adverse to investors in the [CDO], played a significant role in the portfolio selection process," the complaint said.

The complaint said Paulson had an incentive to stuff the CDO with mortgage-backed securities that were likely to get into trouble. SEC enforcement chief Robert Khuzami alleged that Goldman misled investors by telling them that the securities "were selected by an independent, objective third party..."

The SEC's suit against Goldman Sachs has been the buzz of the day. Everyone is talking about it in the blogosphere, the business news media, and on Twitter and Stocktwits.

People want to discuss the political implications of the story, as well as forecast what is likely to happen to the principal parties involved: will there be a large fine/settlement, who will be thrown under the bus, why did this news just happen to come out on an option expiration Friday, and so on. Business Insider has even dedicated a special section to the Goldman Sachs story.

Meanwhile, it's interesting to note that the details of Goldman's CDO deals with Paulson & Co. were openly detailed in chapter 9 of Greg Zuckerman's book, The Greatest Trade Ever. John Paulson and his team met with various Wall Street firms (Deutsche Bank, Goldman Sachs, Bear Stearns) to discuss and negotiate the creation of new CDOs from pools of risky mortgages.

Paulson & Co. were open about their desire to short most tranches of the CDOs through the purchase of credit default swaps (CDS) on these CDO instruments. Some bankers (Scott Eichel at Bear Stearns, among others) turned down Paulson's proposed deals, while others (like Goldman) gladly accepted and negotiated with Paulson on the collateral backing the deals.

According to Zuckerman's book and Paulson's quotes, the bankers were ultimately responsible for what went into the CD0s that were sold to investors. It's worth pointing out that all those who took the bullish side of the trade did so of their own accord, and that "some investors were even consulted as the mortgage debt was picked for the CDOs to make sure it would appeal to them." (Zuckerman, page 181).

Having said that, Goldman probably should have been more forthright in dealing with its clients, instead of telling them (as the SEC complaint alleges) that the mortgage-backed CDOs they were buying were structured with the help of an "independent, third party".

Update: NPR interviewed Greg Zuckerman to get his thoughts on the Goldman Sachs charges and John Paulson's role in the CDO deals. Do check this out, as he quickly fills us in on some main points that people were guessing about (or just wildly wrong about) on Friday.

Related articles and posts:

1. Michael Burry explains his subprime CDS trade - Finance Trends.

2. FSN interview: Richard Eckert (Lahde Capital) - Finance Trends.

3. Lessons from John Paulson - Finance Trends.

4. NPR talks to Greg Zuckerman (Greatest Trade Ever) - NPR.org.

Thursday, April 15, 2010

Jim Chanos on Charlie Rose Show


Charlie Rose interviews investor Jim Chanos, the noted short-seller and hedge fund manager (Kynikos) who now insists there is a property bubble of epic proportions in China.

We shared this interview link on Twitter earlier in the week, but I wanted to post this here for everyone to see. If you've seen some of Chanos' past presentations on China, you'll be familiar with some of his arguments on the real estate bubble, but this interview provides an excellent update to, and clarification of, his thoughts.

Enjoy the discussion, and see our related links for more on this theme.

Related articles and posts:

1. Jim Chanos: "Overheating in China" - Finance Trends.

2. Pivot Capital report: China's investment boom - Finance Trends.

Thursday, April 8, 2010

Michael Burry explains subprime CDS trade

Michael Burry explains credit default swaps and his subprime short to Scion Capital investors in this November 2006 document shared by Marketfolly:

"A big hat tip to
Greenbackd for originally bringing this to our attention. Below you will find a very interesting primer on credit default swaps and the subprime mortgage short from Scion Capital's hedge fund manager Michael Burry.

Burry of course was recently featured in Michael Lewis' latest book,
The Big Short (which we highly recommend reading) for his notable early short position in subprime mortgages.

Michael Burry penned his primer back on November 7th, 2006 and it's almost comical now to think about how he was running a value fund focused on equities and then all of a sudden has to explain his short subprime trade and complex derivatives to his certainly surprised and confused investors..."

Head on over there to read the full embedded document. Should make for very interesting reading, as by now I've read and heard several accounts of how difficult it was for Burry to hold on to his famous trade in the face of overwhelming resistance from his investors.

While you're at it, you can also check out Michael Burry's recent op-ed in the NY Times deflating the great Greenspan myth that "no one saw the crisis coming". Essential reading for those who believe the endless barrage of lies coming from the econo-political "elites".

Related articles and posts:

1. FSN interview: Richard Eckert (Lahde Capital) - Finance Trends.

2. Michael Lewis on Charlie Rose: The Big Short - Finance Trends.

Tuesday, April 6, 2010

FSN interview: Richard Eckert (Lahde Capital)

There's a great interview in the latest Financial Sense Newshour with Richard Eckert, the former CFO/risk manager at Lahde Capital Management.

The interview topic: "The Greatest Trade Ever: An insider's behind the scene view of how a hedge fund made millions out of the credit collapse."

For those who don't recall, Lahde Capital is the small Santa Monica hedge fund set up by Andrew Lahde, which profited mightily from short bets on the subprime housing market. After raking in his dough, Lahde famously kissed the hedge fund world goodbye in a widely circulated, and widely discussed, farewell letter to clients.

Lahde is also one of the main investors profiled in Gregory Zuckerman's book, The Greatest Trade Ever, a treasure trove of information on the subprime crash and the hedge fund managers who profited in the downturn.

As I come to the end of Zuckerman's book, one thing that I'm totally struck by are the obstacles that investors like Andrew Lahde, Michael Burry, and John Paulson met in executing their subprime trades and keeping those trades on in the face of financial worries, personal doubts, and total opposition to their ideas from nearly everyone they came in contact with (including their own investors).

How did they maintain their vision and stay with their winning trades until the end? That's an interesting subject, and perhaps FSN's interview with Richard Eckert will shine a little added light on that, and other aspects of Lahde's trade as well. Enjoy.

Related posts:

1. Michael Lewis on Charlie Rose: The Big Short - Finance Trends.

2. Michael Burry: Betting the Blind Side - Finance Trends.

Monday, March 29, 2010

Astonishing idea: let home prices fall

Even when everyone around seems to have totally lost the plot, you can count on Caroline Baum to step in with some sorely-needed logic and truth. This week's edition: home prices and foreclosures.

Caroline reminds us, "Lower home prices can fix what government can't":

"
New home sales, which lead the complex of housing indicators, fell to an all-time low of 308,000 in February, the fourth consecutive monthly decline. For existing home sales, it was the third consecutive drop after last year’s tax-credit- driven bounce.

Homebuilder sentiment has rolled over. Housing starts are bumping along the bottom, with new construction too low to accommodate normal growth in households, according to Michael Carliner, a Potomac, Maryland, economic consultant specializing in housing.

Alas, all the Fed’s purchases and all the government’s men can’t put the residential real estate market together again.

Between them, the federal government and central bank can lower mortgage rates, modify mortgages, use their power to get private lenders to modify mortgages, and create incentives to move inventory, such as the first-time homebuyer’s tax credit.

What they can’t do is manufacture enough artificial demand for an asset that was artificially inflated to begin with. Prices will have to fall, which is how supply is allocated in a market economy. (An occasional reminder is in order given the current spend-money-to-save-money mindset.)"

Go read the whole thing, and check out Barry Ritholtz's post, "More Foreclosures Please" as well.

Time-saver for those forwarding this post on to government officials: you can't alter the basic rules of supply and demand. Or as the Stones sang, "You can't always get what you want".

Friday, March 19, 2010

Michael Lewis on Charlie Rose: The Big Short


Michael Lewis, well-known storyteller and author of The Big Short, joins Charlie Rose for a discussion of the financial crisis and the real-life characters in his new book, who saw the collapse coming and profited by shorting the subprime housing market.

There are many remarkable aspects to this story, but perhaps one of the most interesting themes to emerge from this discussion is Lewis' realization that the events chronicled so memorably in Liar's Poker were not, as he thought at the time, the end of an era, but rather the beginning of one that only seems to be ending now in 2010.

Enjoy the interview, and click over to our related posts for more insight on hedge fund managers Michael Burry, Andrew Lahde, and John Paulson, who profited from the subprime short trade and were profiled in Lewis' and Greg Zuckerman's latest books.

Thursday, March 4, 2010

Michael Burry: Betting the Blind Side

Michael Lewis has a new book coming out called, The Big Short. It's supposed to be an account of the financial crisis and how the "US economy was driven off a cliff", thanks to the drive for cheap housing and the toxic investments Wall Street packaged around this goal.

Vanity Fair has published an excerpt from Lewis' book called, "Betting on the Blind Side", which highlights the subprime-housing short trade of California hedge fund manager, Dr. Michael Burry.

"
In early 2004 a 32-year-old stock-market investor and hedge-fund manager, Michael Burry, immersed himself for the first time in the bond market. He learned all he could about how money got borrowed and lent in America. He didn’t talk to anyone about what became his new obsession; he just sat alone in his office, in San Jose, California, and read books and articles and financial filings.

He wanted to know, especially, how subprime-mortgage bonds worked. A giant number of individual loans got piled up into a tower. The top floors got their money back first and so got the highest ratings from Moody’s and S&P, and the lowest interest rate. The low floors got their money back last, suffered the first losses, and got the lowest ratings from Moody’s and S&P.

Because they were taking on more risk, the investors in the bottom floors received a higher rate of interest than investors in the top floors. Investors who bought mortgage bonds had to decide in which floor of the tower they wanted to invest, but Michael Burry wasn’t thinking about buying mortgage bonds. He was wondering how he might short, or bet against, subprime-mortgage bonds."

We mentioned Burry in yesterday's post, highlighting a passage from Greg Zuckerman's book, The Greatest Trade Ever, which pinpoints the moment that Michael Burry and John Paulson's subprime short aspirations were realized in the creation of credit-default swaps (CDS) tied to mortgage bonds.

I'm halfway through Greatest Trade Ever now, and Lewis' account of Burry's subprime trade should prove to be an engrossing companion piece to Zuckerman's book. You may even want to print the VF article out, as it's a lengthy excerpt from Lewis' book.

Wednesday, March 3, 2010

John Carney: how AIG destroyed itself

I am checking out John Carney's recent Business Insider piece on the collapse of insurer AIG.

Here's an excerpt from Carney's description of "AIG as a buyer of risk" from, "The Untold Story of How AIG Destroyed Itself":

"AIG’s financial products division became what is known on Wall Street as a “synthetic buyer” of a variety of asset backed securities, including mortgages and infrastructure linked bonds. AIGFP would sell credit default swaps that performed for the company much like an ordinary bond would for a bond investor.

As long as the insured bonds were performing, AIG would receive a regular revenue stream from the buyer that mirrored the regular payments of interest and principle that a bond holder would receive. AIG was able investing in the bonds without actually having to buy them.
.."

Carney goes on to note that AIG had, in effect, taken a synthetic long position in these mortgage bonds by insuring the asset backed securities and writing CDS (credit-default swaps) against them. This gave AIG a regular stream of profits from CDS buyers, though it exposed the firm to huge financial risk (and we all know how that played out).

To further illustrate this point, here's a passage from Greg Zuckerman's new book on the short subprime trade, The Greatest Trade Ever (page 87):

"...Credit-default swaps were tied to actual mortgages - but the number of insurance bets on the subprime loans now were essentially unlimited.

Finally, Burry and other housing skeptics had a way to short the market, while those who were bullish, such as insurance giant AIG, could make extra money by selling the insurance, confident they would never have to pay out. Their acutaries produced sophisticated models that showed the chances of a housing meltdown were minimal".

Ever notice how often references to such "sophisticated models" spring up in the past decade-plus' chronicle of hubris and folly?

Sunday, February 21, 2010

John Allison on "Leadership and Values"



John A. Allison, then acting CEO and Chairman of BB&T bank (now retired), gives a talk on "Leadership and Values" at the University of Virginia's Darden School of Business.

Why am I linking to this lecture by John Allison? Very simply, Allison's excellent talk addresses a greatly overlooked theme in American business and life today: establishing one's code of personal ethics.

Now what makes John Allison qualified to deliver such a lecture?

Allison, who we highlighted (and who the NY Times profiled) in our post, "BB&T prefer liberty and reason to bailouts", grew the North Carolina-based BB&T bank by leaps and bounds while it gained plaudits from customers and the business community for its integrity and high rates of customer satisfaction.

While large banks and mortgage lenders across the country sank their customers, themselves, and our overall economy through their overexposure to residential housing and subprime mortgage loans, Allison and BB&T remained focused on ethical capitalism and engaging in "win-win" transactions that benefited the bank as well as its customers.

In his talks on "Leadership and Values", Allison, an admirer of Ayn Rand's philosophy of Objectivism, discusses the importance of integrity, examining your ethical framework, egalitarianism and moral relativism vs. objective truth, and the road to self- improvement.

We'll let John Allison do the talking now. Check out the video above, or see this more recent clip of a very similar talk at Marshall University with a Q&A session from students and community members. Enjoy the discussion!

Thursday, February 4, 2010

Jim Chanos: "overheating" in China



Here's what I'm currently watching: noted short-seller and hedge fund manager, Jim Chanos gives a talk on "Overheating & Overindulgence" in China at the London School of Economics Alternative Investments Conference (see also: Bloomberg video).

We've noted here before that Chanos is hugely bearish on the Chinese economy and looking to bet against its overheated real estate and construction businesses by shorting commodities and ancillary suppliers.

In this presentation Chanos offers his thoughts on China's GDP growth, its credit excesses, and the interplay of its economic and political system. Very interesting stuff, even if Jim Rogers is skeptical over the recent findings of newly-minted China experts.

Is he right? Given my limited knowledge of the situation, I'm inclined to agree with Marc Faber (a friend of both Chanos and Rogers) who notes that Jim Chanos is "hyper smart" and willing to back his thesis, though it's uncertain how the timing of a Chinese bust will play out.

Related articles and posts:

1. Pivot Capital Report: China's Investment Boom - Finance Trends.

2. Is China Headed Towards Collapse? - Politico.

3. Marc Faber: China bubble bad for commodities - Tech Ticker.

Monday, February 1, 2010

SIGTARP report: housing bubble 2.0?

Last night, FT came out with this report on Sig-TARP probing possible insider trading at US banks:

"
Neil Barofsky, the special inspector-general overseeing the US government’s financial rescue efforts, is to probe allegations of insider trading among bank executives and their associates.

Eight of the largest banks in the US received between $2bn and $25bn in October 2008 under a programme to prop up the financial system led by Hank Paulson, then Treasury secretary.

Dozens more institutions followed and Mr Barofsky, who examines the troubled asset relief programme, is looking into whether information improperly made its way to trading rooms during a feverish period in which the government and banks were frequently exchanging information..."

The article goes on to say that much of the latest SIG-TARP report focuses on government's increased role in the housing market.

"Much of Sig-Tarp’s new report is given over to an examination of the housing market and the multitude of government schemes designed to support lending and help homeowners avoid foreclosure.

“The government has done more than simply support the mortgage market,” the report said. “In many ways it has become the mortgage market with the taxpayer shouldering the risk that had once been borne by the private investor.”

Mr Barofsky added: “All of the things that were broken in the housing market and the different roles that different private players have played, some of what we recognise now . . . actually contributed to the bubble and to the ensuing crisis are really being replicated by government actors.”"

The myriad government bank lending programs have become too numerous and confusing for me. I imagine that it's very easy to lose track of all this information unless you are a writer, blogger, or news junkie particularly focused on the bank bailouts and lending programs designed to prop up US housing prices.

To catch up with some of these details, we might want to turn to Dr. Housing Bubble's blog for their new post on the "Stunning STIGTARP report" and "The Subtle Nationalization of the Banks and Housing Market". I can see some interesting data and insights leafing through this post, and will now give it a careful read.

Monday, January 11, 2010

Fed wants to keep US bailout secrets

Bloomberg has been doing a great job of showcasing the "transparency" of the Federal Reserve over the past year or so, in spite of many attempts by the Fed and bailed out banks to block the news outlet's progress in procuring data on a $2 trillion loan program initiated by the Fed during the 2008 financial panic.

Here's Bloomberg's latest on the Fed's bailout secrets:


"The Federal Reserve will ask a U.S. appeals court to block a ruling that for the first time would force the central bank to reveal secret identities of financial firms that might have collapsed without the largest government bailout in U.S. history.

The U.S. Court of Appeals in Manhattan, after hearing arguments in the case today, will decide whether the Fed must release records of the unprecedented $2 trillion U.S. loan program launched after the 2008 collapse of Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc. In August, a federal judge ordered that the information be released, responding to a request by Bloomberg LP, the parent of Bloomberg News.

Bloomberg argues that the public has the right to know basic information about the “unprecedented and highly controversial use” of public money. Banks and the Fed warn that bailed-out lenders may be hurt if the documents are made public, causing a run or a sell-off by investors. Disclosure may hamstring the Fed’s ability to deal with another crisis, they also argued. The lower court agreed with Bloomberg..."

As noted in the earlier Bloomberg piece from Dec. 2008 (also linked above), the Fed lent cash & government securities to banks in exchange for collateral including "stocks and subprime and structured securities such as collateralized debt obligations".

Obviously, many people are a bit concerned about the quality of that collateral. Having access to data on the quality of securities held on the Fed's balance sheet would give investors & the public an idea about the potential losses the government faces on those assets.

Related articles and posts:

1. Fed refuses to disclose recipients of $2 trillion - Bloomberg.

2. Ron Paul: audit the Fed - Finance Trends.

Wednesday, December 30, 2009

Pivot Capital report: China's Investment Boom

We mentioned a possible divergence of opinion between Niall Ferguson and Jim Chanos on the future of China's economic path in Monday's post, "Niall Ferguson: world tilts towards Asia" (although Niall does hedge quite a bit on possible outcomes for Asia & China towards the final paragraphs of his article).

Is China's economy sailing along thanks to a skillful implementation of government-directed "stimulus", or is the country's current prosperity and stated economic output merely a mirage?

Jim Chanos is on record saying that China is "Dubai times 1000" and that the government-directed economy is being propped up with phony GDP statistics. His firm, Kynikos Associates, has also been influenced by a report
on China's economy from Pivot Capital Management:

"
The Pivot Capital report was extremely popular in Chanos’s office and concluded, “We believe the coming slowdown in China has the potential to be a similar watershed event for world markets as the reversal of the U.S. subprime and housing boom.” "

I thought it would be insightful to follow-up Monday's post with a look at this research, so I'm currently reading Pivot Capital's report, "China's Investment Boom: the Great Leap into the Unknown" (pdf).

If you're inclined to read along and share your thoughts on China's economy with us, we'd appreciate it.

Sunday, December 27, 2009

Interview: Greg Zuckerman (Greatest Trade Ever)



Matt Davio at MissTrade recently interviewed Gregory Zuckerman, writer and author of, The Greatest Trade Ever, a new book about the "short" subprime real estate trade and the fortunes made by speculators and investors like hedge fund manager John Paulson through their persistent effort in carrying out that trade.

After watching this interview and hearing all the great insights on what made John Paulson's trade a breakthrough winner for his firm & for his investors, I decided that Zuckerman's book should be at the top of my reading list. Can't wait to check it out.

Related articles and posts:

1. Lessons from John Paulson - Finance Trends.

2. 'Greatest Trade Ever' podcast w/ Gregory Zuckerman - Slate.

3. MissTrade "Trader Talk" interviews - Vimeo.