Notes: Flight to hard assets, Felix Zulauf interview, and BP spill

Tuesday's notes, culled from our Twitter stream and our favorite blogs and news sources:

1. Matthew Simmons was interviewed on the Financial Sense Newshour, where he discussed the BP Gulf oil spill disaster with host Jim Puplava. Simmons says the spill "could be the biggest ecological catastrophe the world's ever had".

2. Here's a weekly chart of BP I posted to Chart.ly this afternoon. Note that today's down move, the biggest 1 day drop in BP since 1992, has brought BP's share price down toward its 2003 & 2009 lows.

3. Richard Russell says the world's wealthy are fleeing fiat currencies, piling their money into hard assets such as gold, silver, gems, art, and beachfront real estate.

4. Bear Mountain Bull wraps up today's market action, and is on the lookout for short setups. Randy also points us to Puru Saxena's piece on the latest bubble-blowing actions of the world's central banks. Be sure to check that out.

5. Eric King interviews investor Felix Zulauf on the European bailouts, gold, and more. Many of you probably know Zulauf from his frequent Barron's Roundtable appearances. Thanks to John at Controlled Greed for pointing out this rare interview.

6. Speaking of which, Controlled Greed also highlights Kevin Duffy's recent talk at the Mises Circle in New York entitled, "Navigating the Financial Markets with an Austrian Compass". Highly recommended.

That's it for now, gang. Enjoy the links, and let us hear your thoughts.

Interview with Anthony Boeckh: The Great Reflation

Financial Sense Newshour recently interviewed Tony Boeckh, investor and author of a new book entitled, The Great Reflation.

I'd recently heard about Boeckh's new book through Richard Russell, who commented on it in his recent Dow Theory Letters updates. It seems to have drawn quite a few noted admirers, judging by the warm testimonials from Henry Kaufman, Marc Faber, and Barton Biggs (among others).

FSN host Jim Puplava was quite impressed with The Great Reflation as well, but we'll let you hear the details of Boeckh's thesis for yourself. Check out the interview, and pay close attention to Boeckh's opening statements on the nature of inflation and debt cycles, and how money and credit creation can affect investment decisions and asset prices. Enjoy.

Richard Russell: Last Man Standing

Even though I'm able to read Richard Russell's Dow Theory Letters at the town library (they are subscribers), it's nice to find snippets from his daily remarks up on 321gold. It's convenient, and I can easily share samples of his excellent writing with others.

Here's one that I'd like to share with you, a recent update from Russell on gold and the state of America's finances called, "Last Man Standing".

"A final thought. One could stay in US dollars and gold. If the dollar goes to hell, rising gold could make up for the loss in purchasing power.

A hundred years ago gold and silver were the only items accepted as money. Paper money was carried around because it was convenient as opposed to gold and silver, which are heavy. Besides, if you had any doubt about your paper, you could turn it in at any national bank for gold, "the dollar was as good as gold." Furthermore, the dollar was backed by one of the strongest and most prosperous nations on earth.

Today the dollar is backed only by "the full faith and credit of the United States," the greatest debtor the world has ever seen. Questions are now arising about the credit-worthiness of sovereign debt. Many analysts believe that the US will never, ever, be able to pay off its debt, which is now not only rising but is compounding.

It's obvious that the Obama administration is putting off the solution of our debt and deficit problems to other future administrations. This is always a dangerous procedure.

It's the reason why our children and grandchildren will not inherit the fun and easy life that we live. I've talked about sacrifice before -- our children will be making some of the sacrifices that my own generation made (and I hope one of the sacrifices won't be war)... "

Read on to understand why "Americans have forgotten the meaning of gold and silver", and check out more of Russell's remarks at the 321gold archive and at his website (linked above).

You'll see why he's one of the most fascinating writers around (on almost any subject), and you will definitely get some perspective from a guy who's been around and seen more than most.

Russell: Dow Theory signals bullish market

Quick note: I was catching up with Richard Russell's Dow Theory Letters last night, and Russell made prominent mention of the fact that the Dow Transports and Dow Industrials had both moved above their previous June highs, thereby signaling a bullish confirmation under Dow Theory.

Prieur du Plessis at Investment Postcards has more to say about the Dow Theory bull market signal.

Those who've followed this blog for some time know that your author is an interested follower of Richard Russell's newsletter and a student of Dow Theory, but certainly not an expert in this area.

Excellent introductions to the subject of Dow Theory can be found in Victor Sperandeo's book, Methods of a Wall Street Master, and John Murphy's Technical Analysis. You may also wish to consult the original works of the Dow Theory pioneers (Hamilton, Rhea, etc.) listed in Russell's historical overview.

Related articles and posts:

1. New bull market? - Tim Wood at Financial Sense.

2. Charting the markets: S&P 500 - Finance Trends.

3. A rally with serious muscle (?) - Finance Trends.

"Know Thyself" - Richard Russell on identity

This essay, from Richard Russell of Dow Theory Letters, is probably one of the most important pieces of writing you'll ever find on this site.

Russell's recent piece on self identity is not only a must read for traders and investors, it's essential knowledge for the entire human race.

Without further ado, here's an excerpt from Russell's recently penned essay, "Identity: Know Thyself":  

"The following is what I think is wrong with the world. It’s a worldwide lack of IDENTITY on the part of the great majority of the earth’s population.   

There are three Levels of existence -

(1) the highest Level is who or what you are. 

The next lower Level is

(2) what you’re doing or what you have done.

(3) the lowest Level is what you own.

An example of Level (1) is Jesus, who changed the world based on who he was. An example of Level (2) is George Patton, one of the great generals of World War II, whose daring exploits amazed the world. As for Level (3), we have John Rockefeller who possessed fabulous wealth or today we have Bill Gates.

Most people on this earth have no identity, no “self.” As a result, they often pick an identity such as I’m a “Yankee fan” or I’m a “Texan” or I’m a “race-car driver” or I’m a “blood.” To lack an identity means you are mindless fodder in this world, and you’re open to join any group that fascinates you or that fits into your personal fantasy.

People long to have an identity – to belong to something which gives them an identity. People without an identity can be dangerous. When you have an identity you have a self – you are centered, and you can stand as a person with your own strong convictions."

 
Read the full piece at Joe Cobb's blog, an interesting site in its own right (have a look around and find more to read there), and pass this article on to anyone who'd appreciate it. 

Related posts: 

1. Marc Faber's advice to young people and the meaning of "success".

2. Jim Rogers interview: lessons on life and investing.

John Paulson, hedge funds move into gold

There was a good amount of buzz last week surrounding hedge fund manager John Paulson's move into the gold sector, one that coincided with the opening of a new Paulson & Co. fund (the "Paulson Real Estate Recovery Fund") that will invest in real estate.

Market Folly has more on Paulson & Co.'s investments in gold and the gold mining shares in, "Paulson & Co. buys tons of gold":

"The first major move that everyone will be talking about is Paulson's big entrance into gold. His position in the Gold Trust (GLD) is brand new and is brought up to a whopping 30% of his portfolio.

Now, there are indeed a few caveats with this move: Paulson & Co have said themselves that they have done so as a hedge, as they now own well over 8% of this exchange traded fund (ETF). Their hedge funds have a share class that is denominated in gold (instead of in US dollars or Euros).

Still though, that's quite a large hedge to have. Not to mention, Paulson also has a copious amount of gold miners now littered throughout his equity portfolio... And, such a massive position in gold and gold miners has to be for more than merely a hedge.

One other thing to consider with Paulson's portfolio is that these holdings listed above are only his long equity holdings. The main reason why we bring this up is because the holdings above represent only a piece of his overall portfolio pie. Many of the positions above are merger arbitrage and event driven positions. While his gold stakes may be a large part of the assets disclosed in this filing, they are not quite as big when you compare them to his total assets under management. So, keep that in mind..."

Jay at Market Folly also notes that other prominent hedge funds, including David Einhorn's Greenlight Capital and Stephen Mandel's Lone Pine Capital, have also recently made notable forays into the gold sector. So should we follow the hedge fund crowd into their recent gold trade?

Andrew Mickey offers an interesting take on this very issue in, "Why Gold Enthusiasm is 'Cool' Again". As he notes in the article, Paulson's Midas touch has made gold the new "cool" investment on Wall Street, which is enough to leave Mickey skeptical on the timing of this particular speculation.

"Right now, gold is the hot sector. Expectations are soaring and it is only a matter of time until the “hot money” finds something new. Gold is glittering now and it will do so in the future, but it’s best to buy it when it’s not being watched so closely.

Yes, I’ve bought gold and gold stocks in the past. I will be buying gold stocks again in the future. It’s all part of my personal investment plan which I’m sticking too.

Inflation is coming. Real assets and shares of producers of real assets will do exceptionally well in the years ahead. For now though, it’s best to look for value in the real asset sectors."

Check out the full piece at the link above (Hat tip to Richard Russell), and see why this writer thinks the recent gold chase has left some hard asset sectors overlooked and relatively undervalued.

Related articles and posts:

1. John Paulson in Bloomberg Markets - Finance Trends.

2. Video: John Paulson & Joseph Stiglitz - Finance Trends.

The next leg down for world markets

John Authers, of FT.com's "Short View" column, charts the new lows in world stock markets and emerging market currencies in this March 2 video clip.

Here's a lead in from the print version of, "The next leg down":

"World markets are taking the long-dreaded “next leg down”. A new low for this crisis by the S&P 500 last week has been followed swiftly by new lows for the FTSE-100, the FTSE- Eurofirst 300 and, in dollar terms, Japan’s Nikkei 225.

The equity markets’ loss of confidence has translated into currencies. The Korean won and the Mexican peso, representing economies exposed to US imports, are at fresh lows for the crisis. With currencies in eastern Europe, the current focus of concern, also falling, the risk of a true emerging markets crisis is back. "

Authers notes that some reasons for hope may be found in improved economic data from China (due to a recent uptick in activity coinciding with stimulus efforts there), but he remind us that we are now looking towards a command economy for signs of optimism.

Yesterday's new lows in the leading US stock indices (DJIA, S&P 500) brought us back down to price levels of 1997 and 1996, respectively.

We have now reached a point where the Dow has not only dropped 50 percent from its 2007 peak, we've also erased half of the rise in the DJIA from 1932 to 2007 in only 16 months, a fact Richard Russell and Michael Santoli recently pointed out.

Related articles and posts:

1. Back to the future: Stocks' fall may be a milestone - MarketWatch.

2. Four bad bears (updated chart) - Bear Mountain Bull.

3. Stock market roundup: Nowhere to hide - Investment Postcards.