Monday links: The Bernank, Macro view, & more

Came across some worthwhile links from the blogosphere and Twitter today, and thought I'd point you to 'em.

We've got some videos and posts on The Ben Bernank, a macro view of the economy and markets, interviews with Bruce Berkowitz and David Einhorn, and more for you in today's links.

1. Bear Mountain Bull wraps up some recent interviews and links on The Ben Bernank.

2. Abnormal Returns brings us 3 non-Bernanke videos, including interviews with investors Bruce Berkowitz and David Einhorn.

3. Catching up on the Macro view with Gregor Macdonald and the health of the stock market with Joe Fahmy.

Peruse what you like, leave the rest. Remember, our ability to process and retain information is finite, so focus on what's most important to you in your pursuit of market education and limit your exposure to extraneous "noise".

Thanks, as always, for stopping by.

Marketfolly's notes from Value Investing Congress

Jay at Marketfolly is currently at work providing notes from the Value Investing Congress in New York (Update: see also, notes from VIC - day 2).

Some of the well known speakers at this event include Kyle Bass, John Burbank, David Einhorn, Mohnish Pabrai, and Lee Ainslie, among others in the hedge fund and investment management world. These investing all-stars will be presenting their views on the markets and the global economy to the VIC audience, while sharing some of their current investing ideas.

You can check out Marketfolly's continually updated notes at the link above. In addition, Jay has posted some recent notes from the Ira Sohn West Conference, including some big picture thoughts from John Burbank of Passport Capital regarding the US and its current investment climate.

If you'd like to hear more from John Burbank on the theme of "US as an emerging market economy", please check out this excellent (and rare) interview with Burbank on Benzinga's radio podcast. You'll also find more key interviews with VIC speakers and VIC coverage in our related posts section below.

Related articles and posts:

1. CNBC interviews Kyle Bass, Alan Fournier - Finance Trends.

2. Must hear interview with John Burbank (Passport Capital) - Finance Trends.

3. Live VIC coverage via Twitter search - Twitter.com

Macro themes dominate the investing world

The rise of global macro investing and the increased importance of weighing macro themes in everyday investing were the subject of this recent Wall Street Journal piece entitled, "Macro Forces in Market Confound Stock Pickers" (Hat tip: Abnormal Returns).

An excerpt from that piece:

"The market turmoil has battered many investors over the past few years. But for stock pickers like Neuberger Berman LLC's David Pedowitz, it has made their entire investing approach feel like an exercise in futility.

Mr. Pedowitz buys and sells stocks based on research and analysis of individual companies. His investment strategy, he says, has been upended by a tidal wave of "macro" forces—big-picture market movers like the economy, politics and regulation.

More and more investors aren't bothering to pore through corporate reports searching for gems and duds, but are trading big buckets of stocks, bonds and commodities based mainly on macro concerns. As a result, all kinds of stocks—good as well as bad—are moving more in lock step.

"It's unbelievably frustrating," says Mr. Pedowitz, who helps manage $4.5 billion for wealthy clients and has 25 years of investing experience. "It's enough to make you crazy."

That kind of talk has become widespread on Wall Street as stock pickers discover that long-held investment strategies are no longer working very well..."

Note that Gregory Zuckerman, author of The Greatest Trade Ever, is a co-writer of this article. Which makes sense, given that the main subject of his book, John Paulson, was a convertible arbitrage trader turned macro-focused hedge fund manager who scored big with his now-famous subprime short trade.

Paulson's not the only one to embrace the macro approach; exhaustive researchers and value oriented stock pickers, David Einhorn and Michael Burry have also delved into macro investing in recent years with their subprime-related short trades and forays into gold, farmland, and commodities.

The authors of the WSJ piece note that in the aftermath of the 2008 financial crisis, many investors woke up to the fact that a big picture theme or an "unexpected" storm can wreak havok on their investment returns. Now, they are starting to look more at big picture trends in the economic and geopolitical spheres, as they realize these events can greatly influence their performance.

Witness this quote from David Einhorn:

"For years I had believed that I didn't need to take a view on the market or the economy because I considered myself a 'bottom-up investor,'" said hedge-fund manager David Einhorn of Greenlight Capital last year. "The lesson that I have learned is that it isn't reasonable to be agnostic about the big picture."

There you have it. The big picture outlook has permeated the investment world. Is this a temporary vogue in favor of macro investing, or are we all, to some extent, global macro investors now?

Related articles and posts:

1. Michael Burry: an up & coming macro star? - Finance Trends.

2. Must hear interview with John Burbank of Passport Capital - Finance Trends.

Ira Sohn Conference notes: Marketfolly

Marketfolly has put together a nice, detailed post on the recent Ira Sohn Conference and the investing ideas offered up by some leading hedge fund managers and investors at this event.

If you haven't heard the chatter about this event, we can tell you that there were some very notable speakers present, including investors David Einhorn (Greenlight Capital), Bill Ackman (Pershing Square Capital), David Tepper (Appaloosa Management), Seth Klarman (Baupost Group), Jeremy Grantham (GMO), and historian Niall Ferguson.

Jay has summarized some of the main points and highlights from the speaker presentations, with the help of some Marketfolly readers who were good enough to share their notes from the conference. You'll also find links to additional coverage on Twitter and at Barron's.

Update: new Marketfolly posts highlighting David Einhorn's presentation and Steve Eisman's presentation, "Subprime Goes to College", have been added.

Also, if you'd like to find out more about the Ira Sohn Research Conference Foundation, which is "dedicated to the treatment and cure of pediatric cancer and other childhood diseases", have a look at the conference home page. You can learn more about their mission and make a donation to the foundation from their website.

John Paulson, hedge funds move into gold

There was a good amount of buzz last week surrounding hedge fund manager John Paulson's move into the gold sector, one that coincided with the opening of a new Paulson & Co. fund (the "Paulson Real Estate Recovery Fund") that will invest in real estate.

Market Folly has more on Paulson & Co.'s investments in gold and the gold mining shares in, "Paulson & Co. buys tons of gold":

"The first major move that everyone will be talking about is Paulson's big entrance into gold. His position in the Gold Trust (GLD) is brand new and is brought up to a whopping 30% of his portfolio.

Now, there are indeed a few caveats with this move: Paulson & Co have said themselves that they have done so as a hedge, as they now own well over 8% of this exchange traded fund (ETF). Their hedge funds have a share class that is denominated in gold (instead of in US dollars or Euros).

Still though, that's quite a large hedge to have. Not to mention, Paulson also has a copious amount of gold miners now littered throughout his equity portfolio... And, such a massive position in gold and gold miners has to be for more than merely a hedge.

One other thing to consider with Paulson's portfolio is that these holdings listed above are only his long equity holdings. The main reason why we bring this up is because the holdings above represent only a piece of his overall portfolio pie. Many of the positions above are merger arbitrage and event driven positions. While his gold stakes may be a large part of the assets disclosed in this filing, they are not quite as big when you compare them to his total assets under management. So, keep that in mind..."

Jay at Market Folly also notes that other prominent hedge funds, including David Einhorn's Greenlight Capital and Stephen Mandel's Lone Pine Capital, have also recently made notable forays into the gold sector. So should we follow the hedge fund crowd into their recent gold trade?

Andrew Mickey offers an interesting take on this very issue in, "Why Gold Enthusiasm is 'Cool' Again". As he notes in the article, Paulson's Midas touch has made gold the new "cool" investment on Wall Street, which is enough to leave Mickey skeptical on the timing of this particular speculation.

"Right now, gold is the hot sector. Expectations are soaring and it is only a matter of time until the “hot money” finds something new. Gold is glittering now and it will do so in the future, but it’s best to buy it when it’s not being watched so closely.

Yes, I’ve bought gold and gold stocks in the past. I will be buying gold stocks again in the future. It’s all part of my personal investment plan which I’m sticking too.

Inflation is coming. Real assets and shares of producers of real assets will do exceptionally well in the years ahead. For now though, it’s best to look for value in the real asset sectors."

Check out the full piece at the link above (Hat tip to Richard Russell), and see why this writer thinks the recent gold chase has left some hard asset sectors overlooked and relatively undervalued.

Related articles and posts:

1. John Paulson in Bloomberg Markets - Finance Trends.

2. Video: John Paulson & Joseph Stiglitz - Finance Trends.