Our future may be a bit more fragile than "Anti-fragile", if the latest warnings from Nassim Taleb and Stanley Druckenmiller prove correct.
The pair recently sat down with Bloomberg TV to voice their concerns over America's social and economic strains. Taleb believes we are still loaded down with the unsafe systemic risks and toxic leaders of our recent past. Druckemiller sees a crisis "worse than 2008" ahead.
We have their full interviews for you here, so let's jump right in.
Nassim Taleb feels we are at a point where we have not learned or benefited from the mistakes of our recent financial crisis. This has made our society more susceptible to fragility and will deepen the effects of future crises.
Moral hazard has increased as bankers have paid themselves larger bonuses with our (taxpayers') money. Quantitative easing has lifted asset prices. Median incomes, and the average person's standard of living, have been dropping while the top tier of society ("the 1 percent of the 1 percent") has been absorbing the lion's share of recent economic growth.
As Taleb puts it, we are now paying for the bad debts and disastrous trades made by irresponsible, bailed-out parties in the last cycle. We have transferred private problems and failures into public problems by transforming private debt into public debt.
In order to improve our situation and ensure future prosperity, we need to face our mistakes and make our regulations and tax codes less complex. Complex regulations are a boon to lawyers and big businesses who game the laws to their benefit. To quote Taleb, we need "sound, minimal regulations and more skin in the game (personal liability) for those who make mistakes.".
Recently retired from running public money, star hedge fund manager, Stanley Druckenmiller has stepped back into the spotlight to warn of a looming entitlement spending crisis in the USA.
"Every once in a while, the world of investing and what's going on in the country will intersect".
Druckenmiller recounts his conversations with US officials about previous storms on the financial horizon. Based on his past experiences, he figured it was better to keep quiet and manage his investors' money than get caught up in public debates over politically sensitive issues, like the fallout from the 2000s housing bubble.
He now feels he needs to speak out to warn citizens about a coming bust of America's demographic bubble. Druckenmiller notes that in 2030, the average population of the USA will be older than the average Floridian is now. "I don't know about the timing of when markets will respond to this, but I know it will happen based on the fundamentals.".
Stan also offers his thoughts on the valuation of the equity markets, bonds, risk assets and zero rates, and competitive currency devaluations. "Every single major country is now running stimulative monetary policies, basically modeled after the Fed.".
One great piece of investing advice from Stanley Druckenmiller (and a recurring theme in this interview): "You've got to think in an open minded fashion and look out into the future to judge companies [and stock prices]. Try and imagine the world 18-24 months from now and not the way it is today. Then think about where securities prices will be to reflect that view".
Related posts:
1. Victor Sperandeo exclusive interview: gold, inflation, and trading the QE wave.
2. Nassim Taleb on Antifragile at Google.
3. Jim Rogers on Street Smarts and outsized returns.
Showing posts with label Video. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Video. Show all posts
Saturday, March 2, 2013
Wednesday, January 16, 2013
Lauren Templeton shares investing lessons from Sir John Templeton
Investor Lauren Templeton shares some life wisdom and investing lessons from her great-uncle, Sir John Templeton in this VIC 2012 video.
By way of background, John Templeton was a pioneer of global share investing who founded the Templeton Growth fund in 1954. As his wealth increased, he also became known for his philanthropic efforts and writings. In the 1960s, he renounced his U.S. citizenship (an increasingly popular move among the rich of late) and continued to live in the Bahamas as a Bahamian citizen.
In her talk at the Ben Graham Centre for Value Investing, Lauren Templeton shares some insights on Sir John's investment philosophy and his life. A few notable lessons and quotes:
1. Born in Tennessee, Templeton was an excellent student who attended Yale and Oxford. While at Yale, young John found he had to work to pay for a part of his schooling. His skill with probabilities helped him earn a good part of the money playing poker.
2. After studying at Oxford, Templeton took a 40-nation tour of the world. He was gone so long that his mother thought he had passed away! His travels provided a "bedrock of geopolitical knowledge" to guide his investing.
3. Lauren relates the story of his first trade in "maximum pessimism", the famous deal in which Templeton borrowed $10,000 and purchased shares of all the U.S. companies trading below $1 a share. Even though many of the companies were facing bankruptcy at the time of his purchase (on the eve of World War II), most turned a profit and he sold his shares for a $40,000 profit a few years later.
4. Listed among his personal attributes: self-reliance, flexibility, sense of stewardship, a drive towards diversity (seeking opportunities globally), a bargain-hunting mentality, devoting time to study, ability to retreat from daily pressures, developing a broad range of friendships and contacts, positive thinking, patience, simplicity, and great intuitive powers.
5. "To buy when others are despondently selling, and to sell when others are avidly buying, requires the greatest fortitude and pays the greatest ultimate reward."
6. "If you want to have better performance than the crowd, then you must do things differently from the crowd."
7. John was a thrifty saver and he advised his family and friends to live simply and save 50 percent of their income. He viewed his savings as the seed corn of future investments and opportunities.
8. Templeton operated on a truly long-range view. He planned in advance for market panics by drawing up a list of securities to buy at bargain prices. When he discussed his charitable foundations, he spoke of finding the best investment opportunities for the next 200 years. After searching the globe for property investments that might suit his foundation, he still came back to stocks.
There's a good deal more in this video on behavioral finance and human behavior in market panics. As Lauren Templeton says, "If you're aware of your biases you'll become a better investor.".
Enjoy the video and the insights. You'll find more from Sir John and friends below.
Related posts:
1. Jim Rogers interview: lessons on life and investing.
2. Lessons from Hedge Fund Market Wizards: Ray Dalio.
3. John Templeton's last memorandum from 2005.
By way of background, John Templeton was a pioneer of global share investing who founded the Templeton Growth fund in 1954. As his wealth increased, he also became known for his philanthropic efforts and writings. In the 1960s, he renounced his U.S. citizenship (an increasingly popular move among the rich of late) and continued to live in the Bahamas as a Bahamian citizen.
In her talk at the Ben Graham Centre for Value Investing, Lauren Templeton shares some insights on Sir John's investment philosophy and his life. A few notable lessons and quotes:
1. Born in Tennessee, Templeton was an excellent student who attended Yale and Oxford. While at Yale, young John found he had to work to pay for a part of his schooling. His skill with probabilities helped him earn a good part of the money playing poker.
2. After studying at Oxford, Templeton took a 40-nation tour of the world. He was gone so long that his mother thought he had passed away! His travels provided a "bedrock of geopolitical knowledge" to guide his investing.
3. Lauren relates the story of his first trade in "maximum pessimism", the famous deal in which Templeton borrowed $10,000 and purchased shares of all the U.S. companies trading below $1 a share. Even though many of the companies were facing bankruptcy at the time of his purchase (on the eve of World War II), most turned a profit and he sold his shares for a $40,000 profit a few years later.
4. Listed among his personal attributes: self-reliance, flexibility, sense of stewardship, a drive towards diversity (seeking opportunities globally), a bargain-hunting mentality, devoting time to study, ability to retreat from daily pressures, developing a broad range of friendships and contacts, positive thinking, patience, simplicity, and great intuitive powers.
5. "To buy when others are despondently selling, and to sell when others are avidly buying, requires the greatest fortitude and pays the greatest ultimate reward."
6. "If you want to have better performance than the crowd, then you must do things differently from the crowd."
7. John was a thrifty saver and he advised his family and friends to live simply and save 50 percent of their income. He viewed his savings as the seed corn of future investments and opportunities.
8. Templeton operated on a truly long-range view. He planned in advance for market panics by drawing up a list of securities to buy at bargain prices. When he discussed his charitable foundations, he spoke of finding the best investment opportunities for the next 200 years. After searching the globe for property investments that might suit his foundation, he still came back to stocks.
There's a good deal more in this video on behavioral finance and human behavior in market panics. As Lauren Templeton says, "If you're aware of your biases you'll become a better investor.".
Enjoy the video and the insights. You'll find more from Sir John and friends below.
Related posts:
1. Jim Rogers interview: lessons on life and investing.
2. Lessons from Hedge Fund Market Wizards: Ray Dalio.
3. John Templeton's last memorandum from 2005.
Tuesday, January 8, 2013
Nassim Taleb on Antifragile at Google
Authors @ Google presents Nassim Taleb, discussing the concepts from his latest book, Antifragile: Things that Gain from Disorder.
Here, Taleb offers his view that the opposite of fragility is not "robustness", as commonly supposed, but anti-fragility. Whereas things that are fragile need to be handled with care and kept in a state of tranquility, things that are anti-fragile benefit from volatility.
According to Taleb, fragility and anti-fragility can be measured, whereas risk cannot (in spite of what Ivy League academics with risk models may think). You'll hear why anti-fragile systems have benefits that outweigh their risks, and why some fragile systems are vulnerable to "prediction error" and hidden, intolerable risks which vastly outweigh any associated benefits.
Using the example of Seneca, a wealthy Stoic philosopher who often imagined himself to be poor, Taleb suggests we should always try to have more upside than downside from random events - "and then you're anti-fragile".
So let's hear it for an anti-fragile world of "many highway exits and options". It sounds a lot better than a world centered around top-down planning by the supposed elites.
Related posts:
1. Nassim Taleb on Antifragility at Princeton.
2. Econtalk interview with Nassim Taleb on Antifragility.
Wednesday, December 5, 2012
Ray Dalio: meditation is the secret of my success
Hedge fund manager, Ray Dalio credits meditation as the key to his success.
Says the Bridgewater Associates founder, "Meditation has given me centeredness and creativity. It's also given me peace and health... and it's given me open-mindedness."
"Meditation, more than anything in my life, was the biggest ingredient of whatever success I've had".
I was very interested to hear Dalio's take on the benefits of meditation, since he's obviously a very successful individual who assigns a great deal of value to this practice. It's also a subject I've been wanting to learn more about.
While I am not a yoga practitioner and have never tried transcendental meditation, I've come to learn that my long walks through the forests may share some benefits associated with mindfulness meditation. For me, it's about taking time to exercise, relax, and just focus on the natural (or built) world around us.
As Dalio notes, the key for beginners is to challenge themselves to stick with meditation for the first six months. Those who try it must realize that the 20 minutes spent meditating in mornings and evenings is an investment that pays off in numerous ways, enhancing one's enjoyment of life.
Ray Dalio was also the subject of our most recent post, "Lessons from Hedge Fund Market Wizards: Ray Dalio". If you'd like to know more about Dalio and his ideas on trading and learning from mistakes, check it out.
Related articles and posts:
1. Lessons from Hedge Fund Market Wizards: Ray Dalio.
2. Meditation: A Simple, Fast Way to Reduce Stress (Mayo Clinic).
Tuesday, November 20, 2012
Jack Schwager on Hedge Fund Market Wizards
If you're a fan of the Market Wizards books by Jack Schwager, then you've probably read (or are looking forward to reading) the latest in the series, Hedge Fund Market Wizards.
We'll be taking an in-depth look at this book and the insights of the "Hedge Fund Wizards" in an upcoming series of posts, but for now I'd like to share some key interviews and webinars with author Jack Schwager.
These videos will give you a great inside look at Schwager's writing process, as well as offering some key lessons found in this new collection of interviews with leading traders and hedge fund managers.
First, an Opelesque interview with Schwager in Manhattan: "15 Hedge Fund Market Wizard trading secrets and insights".
This discussion opens by noting that while markets have changed since the first Wizards books were published, the main principles behind the various traders' successes have not. Certain strategies and opportunities may have gone by the wayside, but successful traders have continued to hone in on what works for them as they strive for superior risk adjusted returns.
Of supreme importance, Schwager finds, is the need to find a trading method that suits your personality. He cautions young traders from trying to emulate their trading heroes, since top traders may have an approach or strengths that differ from those of the would-be apprentice. You need to develop your own approach.
If you enjoyed this interview and would like to dig further, check out Michael Martin's interview with Jack Schwager, as well as this Schwager Q&A webinar on the behaviors of Hedge Fund Market Wizards.
One recurring theme that runs through these discussions is the quote, "There is no single true path". The Market Wizards profiled in this book, and throughout the series, have all found success by managing risk and pursuing the methods that suit their personalities and strengths.
Join us next week, as we examine some key "Lessons from Hedge Fund Market Wizards" in our upcoming post series of the same name. See you then.
If you're enjoying these posts and would like to see more, please subscribe to our free RSS updates and follow Finance Trends in real-time on Twitter and StockTwits.
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| The review copy Wiley was kind enough to send me this summer. I've taken my sweet time re-reading it... |
We'll be taking an in-depth look at this book and the insights of the "Hedge Fund Wizards" in an upcoming series of posts, but for now I'd like to share some key interviews and webinars with author Jack Schwager.
These videos will give you a great inside look at Schwager's writing process, as well as offering some key lessons found in this new collection of interviews with leading traders and hedge fund managers.
First, an Opelesque interview with Schwager in Manhattan: "15 Hedge Fund Market Wizard trading secrets and insights".
This discussion opens by noting that while markets have changed since the first Wizards books were published, the main principles behind the various traders' successes have not. Certain strategies and opportunities may have gone by the wayside, but successful traders have continued to hone in on what works for them as they strive for superior risk adjusted returns.
Of supreme importance, Schwager finds, is the need to find a trading method that suits your personality. He cautions young traders from trying to emulate their trading heroes, since top traders may have an approach or strengths that differ from those of the would-be apprentice. You need to develop your own approach.
If you enjoyed this interview and would like to dig further, check out Michael Martin's interview with Jack Schwager, as well as this Schwager Q&A webinar on the behaviors of Hedge Fund Market Wizards.
One recurring theme that runs through these discussions is the quote, "There is no single true path". The Market Wizards profiled in this book, and throughout the series, have all found success by managing risk and pursuing the methods that suit their personalities and strengths.
Join us next week, as we examine some key "Lessons from Hedge Fund Market Wizards" in our upcoming post series of the same name. See you then.
If you're enjoying these posts and would like to see more, please subscribe to our free RSS updates and follow Finance Trends in real-time on Twitter and StockTwits.
Sunday, October 28, 2012
Nassim Taleb on Antifragility at Princeton
Nassim Taleb discusses the concept of Antifragility at Princeton.
If you want to understand the long-term consequences of market interventions and other attempts to delay or remove stressors from real-world systems, watch this video.
Taleb also makes clear that we are at an unprecedented point in history, in which those in power benefit on the upside while having no real risk (no "skin in the game") on the downside. In other words, our supposed "leaders" hold their positions and accrue benefits from them without having to display courage or face the consequences of their actions and decisions.
You can hear more from Taleb on this topic in an excellent econtalk interview from earlier this year.
His new book, Antifragile: Things That Gain from Disorder is available on Amazon.
Sunday, September 30, 2012
Peter Thiel and Reid Hoffman talk Silicon Valley, hits and misses
High profile Valley startup founders Peter Thiel and Reid Hoffman (of Paypal/Facebook and LinkedIn, respectively) discuss innovation in Silicon Valley, the coming mobile economy, and their greatest hits and misses in this Forbes video interview.
Related posts:
1. Elon Musk and Peter Thiel on entrepreneurship and creativity.
2. Mark Cuban: How to Get Rich + Success and Motivation.
3. Steve Jobs: Billion Dollar Hippy (BBC documentary).
Wednesday, September 19, 2012
Humans vs. algos: Mike Bellafiore on the future of trading
A few notable quotes and points from Bella's interview:
1. Bella and his traders don't look at the current environment as "man vs. machine".
Instead, they trade around the computers. Most of the advantage that "black box" programs or algorithms have are based on micro-scalping, trading for sub-penny moves. SMB Capital traders have changed their methods, extended their trading time frames, and are adapting to the current market structure.
2. Play your own game. As Mike says, "Do your own thing, let the computers do their thing. Don't play that [computer's] game. Play a game that trades on a longer time frame. Find the trades that work for you."
3. On the large percentage of daily trading volume on US markets that is high-frequency trading (HFT) or machine-based:
"We used to have market makers and they don't exist anymore. The HFTs became the market makers, but they're trying to make a penny or two cents. You're not trying to do that as a retail investor, you're trying to buy a stock because you have a thesis on it [holding for a directional trade or investment while managing your risk]".
4. Finally, Bella acknowledges the coming wave of exchange consolidations and technologies that will open up new opportunities in electronic trading.
Increased access to new, international markets will increase our opportunities as traders, since patterns and underlying psychology will repeat themselves in other markets.
Additionally, traders will learn to create their own automated programs to take advantage of new market opportunities. The future of speculation will be one in which traders apply techniques in their home markets to equity markets abroad, while also reaching into new products and asset classes.
Enjoy the interview, and ask yourself how you might prepare for the changes and opportunities ahead in a "smaller, and more connected" trading world.
Related posts:
1. Interview with Michael Bigger, trader and author.
2. Mark Minervini interview: define and refine your approach.
Wednesday, September 12, 2012
Steve Jobs - Billion Dollar Hippy (BBC documentary)
Steve Jobs' brilliant life and entrepreneurial career are profiled in this BBC documentary, "Steve Jobs - Billion Dollar Hippy".
Today is a big media day for Apple, given the hype surrounding the release of the new iPhone 5. A fine time to look back on the Silicon Valley landscape of the 1970s and the counterculture and tech hobbyist environments which inspired Steve Jobs and Steve Wozniak to start their own little computer company (now valued at over $600 billion dollars, market cap).
This is a great overview of Jobs' rise and fall at Apple, his entries into the realms of interpersonal computing and filmmaking at NeXT and Pixar, and his triumphant return to Apple that kickstarted its reinvention as a design-focused electronics company.
Enjoy the video, and check out our related items below for more on Steve Jobs and the tech revolution.
Related posts:
1. Steve Jobs PBS interview from 1990, rarely seen.
2. Interview: Steve Jobs and Bill Gates at D5.
Tuesday, September 11, 2012
Marc Faber on the global economy, bubbles, and inflation
Marc Faber offers some forecasts for the global economy in this recent Dubai hedge funds world conference video.
Faber makes 2 important points at the outset of this talk.
First, he notes that at the start of his career (1970) investment banks were all private partnerships. Not a one was a publicly traded corporation, whereas today most large banks are listed corporations.
As a result, the risk profile at investment banks has completely changed from the days when partners at investment banks were personally liable for other people's mistakes. Today, bankers risk other people's money and face no real consequences for their mistakes. In fact, they are often bailed out with taxpayer funds when they go bust.
Secondly, Marc points out that the (neo-) Keynesians want to make interventions in the capitalist economy and "smooth out" the business cycle with fiscal and monetary measures.
In Faber's view, these interventions have actually made fluctuations in the business cycle more violent and extreme. As he puts it, "the Keynesians always try to address long-term structural problems with short-term fixes...with an emphasis on creating bubbles to "help" the economy. Whereas bubbles usually hurt the majority of market participants."
Check out the full presentation above for Faber's thoughts on how to navigate our global course of negative real interest rates, understated inflation, serial bubbles, and centrally planned markets.
If you're enjoying these posts and would like to see more, please subscribe to our free RSS updates and follow Finance Trends in real-time on Twitter and StockTwits. You can also check out our related posts below for more market wisdom and trading insights.
Related posts:
1. Marc Faber: final crisis yet to come (video).
2. Nassim Taleb on Anti-fragility.
Tuesday, September 4, 2012
Elon Musk and Peter Thiel on entrepreneurship + creativity
Elon Musk (PayPal, Tesla Motors, SpaceX) and Peter Thiel (PayPal, Facebook, Palantir) discuss entrepreneurship, capitalism, creativity, the educational system, and their own experiences building innovative companies in these PandoMonthly interviews.
Tuesday, December 27, 2011
Saturday, November 26, 2011
Steve Jobs interview from 1990, recently surfaced
Watch An Interview With Steve Jobs on PBS. See more from NOVA.
Steve Jobs talks about the future of computing in a rare 50 minute TV interview aired on PBS.
When asked how computers have changed civilization, Steve begins by noting how humans were able to leapfrog the more efficient locomotion of other animal species by using tools, or technology.
Offering the example of how a human on a bicycle could easily surpass the locomotive advantage of the most efficient animal, a condor, Jobs concludes:
"We humans are tool-builders. And we can fashion tools that amplify these inherent abilities that we have to spectacular magnitudes. So for me, a computer has always been a bicycle of the mind: something that takes us far beyond our inherent abilities. I think we're just at the early stages of this tool."
You can see by the re-do of his 1st interview response that Steve was always "on message" and rehearsing and delivering the exact points he wanted to make when selling his vision of how we use technology and Apple products.
It also highlights the fact that modern TV interviews are often actually rehearsed, taped, and edited performances, rather than the more spontaneous give-and-take than the finished product tries to convey.. Steve could see this, and he crafted his message to the medium, whether he was out on his own at NeXT or selling to a larger consumer market for Apple.
Enjoy the discussion and insights, and see our related posts for more on Steve Jobs.
Related articles and posts.
1. Interview: Steve Jobs and Bill Gates at D5 conference - Finance Trends.
2. In Charts: Apple (AAPL) vs. Microsoft (MSFT) - Finance Trends.
Thursday, November 10, 2011
Facebook's Mark Zuckerberg interview w/ Charlie Rose
Charlie Rose interviews Facebook's Mark Zuckerberg and COO Sheryl Sandberg in an hour-long discussion on the future of the social web and the impact of social media.
Interesting chat and here's one noteworthy comment from Mark on the need for engineers in our new economy: "My #1 piece of advice [for young students & job seekers] is you should learn how to program".
Also, some discussion of American entrepreneurship, risk-taking, and innovation.
Check it out.
Sunday, November 6, 2011
Rakesh Jhunjhunwala interview: Wizards of Dalal Street
On CNBC India, Rakesh Jhunjhunwala is feted in the same way Warren Buffett is here in the USA.
He is known as one of the great bulls of the Indian markets, and while his success has coincided with the recent decades' secular uptrend in Indian shares, Rakesh is also an adept trader who has made money selling short. He cites Buffett and Marc Faber as two of the greatest influences on his trading and his understanding of markets.
CNBC-TV 18 profiles the Indian share trader and investor in this biography special, Wizards of Dalal Street. Rakesh tells Ramesh Damani the story of how he got his start in the share markets and how he searches for attractive investments today.
Here are a few excerpts from the discussion, in which Jhunjhunwala talks about his childhood interest in the workings of share market and shares a few lessons on speculation:
CNBC: "But you're a bureaucrat's son. I mean, weren't you compelled into [that area]?"
Rakesh: "I was a bureaucrat's son, but fortunately I had a very democratic father. And also we had a business background...my father was an intelligent man and he encouraged me to do whatever I had an interest in."
On speculation and reality:
CNBC: "Does speculation teach you to be realistic, because you are betting on leveraged money?"
Rakesh: "I think so, because speculation requires and teaches you to accept reality as it is, rather than reality as you would like to have it."
An important point on risk taking and concentration:
CNBC: "But is one of Rakesh Jhunjhunwala's tenets is when he finds an idea to bet big?"
Rakesh: "Big is relative, Ramesh. But when I find an idea whose prospects are very good...you have to be conscience of one thing - the great investment opportunities are very rare. So when you get them, seize them. And seize them in a manner that if you're right, it makes some difference to your balance sheet."
Check out the full interview here. Much great wisdom and insights within.
If you're enjoying these posts and would like to see more, please subscribe to our free RSS updates and follow Finance Trends in real-time on Twitter and StockTwits. You can also check out our related posts below for more market wisdom and trading insights.
Related articles and posts:
1. Rakesh Jhunjhunwala interview on FT.com - Finance Trends.
2. FY 2012 has been the worst trading year of my life: Jhunjhunwala - Moneycontrol.
3. Rakesh interview CNBC-TV 18 transcript: Momentum and risk - Moneycontrol.
He is known as one of the great bulls of the Indian markets, and while his success has coincided with the recent decades' secular uptrend in Indian shares, Rakesh is also an adept trader who has made money selling short. He cites Buffett and Marc Faber as two of the greatest influences on his trading and his understanding of markets.
CNBC-TV 18 profiles the Indian share trader and investor in this biography special, Wizards of Dalal Street. Rakesh tells Ramesh Damani the story of how he got his start in the share markets and how he searches for attractive investments today.
Here are a few excerpts from the discussion, in which Jhunjhunwala talks about his childhood interest in the workings of share market and shares a few lessons on speculation:
CNBC: "But you're a bureaucrat's son. I mean, weren't you compelled into [that area]?"
Rakesh: "I was a bureaucrat's son, but fortunately I had a very democratic father. And also we had a business background...my father was an intelligent man and he encouraged me to do whatever I had an interest in."
On speculation and reality:
CNBC: "Does speculation teach you to be realistic, because you are betting on leveraged money?"
Rakesh: "I think so, because speculation requires and teaches you to accept reality as it is, rather than reality as you would like to have it."
An important point on risk taking and concentration:
CNBC: "But is one of Rakesh Jhunjhunwala's tenets is when he finds an idea to bet big?"
Rakesh: "Big is relative, Ramesh. But when I find an idea whose prospects are very good...you have to be conscience of one thing - the great investment opportunities are very rare. So when you get them, seize them. And seize them in a manner that if you're right, it makes some difference to your balance sheet."
Check out the full interview here. Much great wisdom and insights within.
If you're enjoying these posts and would like to see more, please subscribe to our free RSS updates and follow Finance Trends in real-time on Twitter and StockTwits. You can also check out our related posts below for more market wisdom and trading insights.
Related articles and posts:
1. Rakesh Jhunjhunwala interview on FT.com - Finance Trends.
2. FY 2012 has been the worst trading year of my life: Jhunjhunwala - Moneycontrol.
3. Rakesh interview CNBC-TV 18 transcript: Momentum and risk - Moneycontrol.
Monday, September 26, 2011
Hugh Hendry on the importance of social mood & failure
"I'd say 80% of my activity is engaged in the interpretation of social mood." - Hugh Hendry.
That quote taken from this September 2010 BBC Hardtalk interview with Hugh Hendry.
When asked about the need for regulatory control of financial markets and curtailing of risk, Hugh replies, "The best form of regulation is, 'If you mess things up, you fail.'".
Hat tip: Kevin Kaiser at Hedgeye.
That quote taken from this September 2010 BBC Hardtalk interview with Hugh Hendry.
When asked about the need for regulatory control of financial markets and curtailing of risk, Hugh replies, "The best form of regulation is, 'If you mess things up, you fail.'".
Hat tip: Kevin Kaiser at Hedgeye.
Friday, August 26, 2011
Interview: Steve Jobs and Bill Gates at D5
So this week's resignation announcement from Steve Jobs has many of us looking back through the archives, compiling old interviews and articles, and summarizing the accomplishments of Apple and its iconic co-founder.
It's prompted me to look back not only at what Steve and Apple have done in the past 30-plus years, but what the tech industry as a whole has created in that time. We're all familiar with the stories of famous rivalries and stolen (or "borrowed"/cheaply purchased) technologies in the PC and software industries. It hasn't always been pretty.
It's quite interesting then, to find two of the tech industry's most famous sparring partners (and sometimes, business venture partners), Steve Jobs and Bill Gates, sharing a stage and chatting about their careers in this D5 (All Things Digital, 2007) conference panel interview.
The panel discussion begins when the two great entrepreneurs are asked to describe the other's impact on technology and our daily lives. Quite an interesting opportunity to hear these two gentlemen speak. This is something our grandkids will probably watch someday.
Enjoy the video, and check our related links section for more.
Related articles and posts:
1. Steve Jobs resignation: reactions from Wozniak, et al. - Bloomberg via YouTube.
2. How Steve Jobs Made Business Cool Again - Bloomberg.
3. Discussion with Steve Jobs & John Lasseter - Charlie Rose.
4. The ultimate Steve Jobs resignation linkfest - Abnormal Returns.
It's prompted me to look back not only at what Steve and Apple have done in the past 30-plus years, but what the tech industry as a whole has created in that time. We're all familiar with the stories of famous rivalries and stolen (or "borrowed"/cheaply purchased) technologies in the PC and software industries. It hasn't always been pretty.
It's quite interesting then, to find two of the tech industry's most famous sparring partners (and sometimes, business venture partners), Steve Jobs and Bill Gates, sharing a stage and chatting about their careers in this D5 (All Things Digital, 2007) conference panel interview.
The panel discussion begins when the two great entrepreneurs are asked to describe the other's impact on technology and our daily lives. Quite an interesting opportunity to hear these two gentlemen speak. This is something our grandkids will probably watch someday.
Enjoy the video, and check our related links section for more.
Related articles and posts:
1. Steve Jobs resignation: reactions from Wozniak, et al. - Bloomberg via YouTube.
2. How Steve Jobs Made Business Cool Again - Bloomberg.
3. Discussion with Steve Jobs & John Lasseter - Charlie Rose.
4. The ultimate Steve Jobs resignation linkfest - Abnormal Returns.
Tuesday, August 16, 2011
Mark Cuban interview: "Buy and hold is a crock"
Entrepreneur and Dallas Mavericks owner, Mark Cuban recently chatted with Alan Murray at the Wall St. Journal about investing, entrepreneurship, job creation and innovation, patent trolls, and the NBA.
Mark kicks things off on a frank and "controversial" note by stating up front his belief that, "buy and hold is a crock of shit", and the idea that one should be almost fully invested in the markets at all times is similarly bunk.
As Cuban puts it: "Unless you really have a commitment to something, just keep your money in cash - knowing that at some point in time there's going to be a week or two like we've had [recent volatility and stock market plunge]."
Mark explicitly states that these are his times to look for opportunity in the market, and implicit in his statements are a belief in the value of market timing and his own ability to find relative bargains in the capital markets. He likes to find things that are cheap, but is not seeing the bargains he needs in leading shares yet. You'll hear more about what he's doing and his philosophy on the current realities of trading and investing in the interview.
What's really interesting to me, beyond the investing discussion, are Mark's comments on patents and the current business environment. Cuban says patent laws and patent litigation are having a "huge", negative effect on the economy and job creation, particularly with technology companies. In fact, he flat out says, "You don't need patents...ideas are easy", citing his own experience with Broadcast.com and its technology patents in the dot com boom environment.
Note that Cuban's remarks on defensive purchases of patent troves came just ahead of the Google - Motorola Mobility deal (driven largely by patent protection needs for the Android OS in the litigious mobile phone industry) announced this week.
There are a few things that I may not agree with in this interview (mostly Mark's ideas about government grants for job creation), but I really like the fact that Mark speaks his mind and is just so off the cuff and straight up with his remarks. Really refreshing at a time when you see so many mealy-mouthed individuals hemming and hawing with their measured, pre-planned responses in interviews. Great stuff, watch and enjoy.
Related posts:
1. Howard Lindzon interviews Mark Cuban on StockTwits TV - Finance Trends.
2. Billionaires are different than the rest of us - Abnormal Returns.
Monday, August 1, 2011
Charlie Rose interviews Barton Biggs (March 9, 2009)
Charlie Rose interviews hedge fund manager, Barton Biggs (Traxis Partners) for an episode which aired on March 9, 2009.
Yes, that was also the exact day the S&P 500 put in its bottom at the 666 mark, amidst more economic gloom than some of us had ever seen.
Thought it would be interesting to revisit this interview, and while I still don't agree with much of what Barton and Charlie said about the "need" for certain bailout measures and monetary stimulus, it is quite instructive to hear the discussion that took place at this particular moment in time (some might say this is real market and economic history you're watching).
Note that Biggs is rather bullish on stocks in the interview, which, in hindsight, was the right thing to be up to this point. Of course, the two year bull move in shares we've witnessed has been helped along by holding interest rates at historically low levels and employing "quantitative easing" programs designed to keep asset prices aloft.
Still, Biggs makes the sound point that the sharp declines of '08 had occurred in a short timeframe, thereby providing the necessary fuel for a sharp rally (even if only within the context of a bear market). He also compares the "scary" mood of the time with the terrible period surrounding the 1974 market bottom. In fact, he goes on to say that "[negative] sentiment is more extreme than in 1974".
These points are quite similar to those made around the same time by Jim Rogers and Marc Faber, who argued that a forced asset liquidation period and extreme negative sentiment were signs of a potential share rally to come, as well as an entry point for long-term share investors in commodities and certain segments of global share markets.
If you enjoyed this interview, you may also want to check out Biggs' follow up appearances at Rose's table.
Wednesday, July 20, 2011
Bloomberg profiles Michael Burry on Risk Takers
Bloomberg TV just aired a special on Scion Capital founder, Michael Burry that is worthwhile viewing for any trader or investor.
If you missed the program, tune in now for a quick primer on Burry's entry into the investing world and the structuring of his now-famous subprime short CDS trade. This is a great story of how one blogger-turned-investor got his start operating a hedge fund and eventually shifted his focus from common stock value investing to diligently uncovering opportunities in the subprime mortgage and credit markets.
If you'd like to get a much more in-depth view of Burry's struggle to stick with his hugely rewarding trade during the height of the real estate bubble, check out Michael Lewis' book, The Big Short.
You'll also want to check out the video of Burry's recent lecture on his "big short" trade and America's financial future at Vanderbilt University.
There you'll find added links to our post on Michael Burry's emergence as a global macro star, plus a great deal of interview material with Burry and author, Michael Lewis (including some Bloomberg interview transcript material you may not have seen). Dig in and enjoy.
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