Tiger Mgmt. founder, Julian Robertson chats with Bloomberg TV about the changing landscape of the hedge fund industry, the impact of the SEC's case against SAC Capital and Steve Cohen, and his thoughts on Apple and Google.
Last week, I tweeted a link back to our post, "Insights from Hedge Fund Legend, Julian Robertson" for his thoughts on the hedge fund industry and the changes that size and increased competition have brought. This latest Bloomberg interview is a worthwhile update to this discussion.
Here are the clips (part one: JR on hedge funds, part two: Julian on Apple, Google) and a few quotes below.
Julian Robertson on the Steve Cohen case and info flow to hedge funds: "I think hedge funds are generally extremely careful that they adhere to rules [concerning inside info]." Doesn't think it will impact the industry much. Tiger cub Nehal Chopra of Tiger Ratan Capital agrees.
On Steve Jobs and Apple: "I read the book on Steve Jobs and developed a tremendous amount of respect for his intellect, but I came to the conclusion that he really was a maverick person and really couldn't establish a great long-term entity [without his leadership]." Julian now prefers Google for their leadership structure long-term.
JR on hedge fund performance: "One of the things that has affected performance [since the growth of the industry from 1980s] is the increase in size of hedge funds. It was so much easier to compete with bank trust depts, individual investors and mutual funds than with other hedge funds... the competition is tougher.".
How Robertson selects his Tiger cubs: "That's sort of secret to us, but one aspect that got us interested in Nehal... was her competitiveness in tennis (Davis Cup caliber). She's a vicious competitor. I find that people who compete well in one thing compete well in others".
Twitter: Tom Keene asks Robertson, "are you on Twitter?". Robertson: "No, sir".
Related posts:
1. Insights from hedge fund legend, Julian Robertson.
2. Julian Robertson on hedge fund strategy and competition (Bloomberg).
Showing posts with label Tech. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Tech. Show all posts
Tuesday, July 23, 2013
Monday, July 1, 2013
Tesla hits new all-time high: Do Androids Dream of Electric Cars?
After a recent consolidation along its 20 day moving average, Tesla (TSLA) closed at a new all-time high today.
As you can see from the daily and weekly charts, the runaway move started in April when TSLA broke out above the $40 level on large volume (over 7 times its daily avg. volume). TSLA soon consolidated that move and continued higher, amidst a stream of exciting announcements and a growing wave of "Elon mania" (see recent interviews, videos below), to its most recent prior peak in late May.
As of today, TSLA is up over 165% from its April 1 closing price.
After noting some weakness in several leading stocks (including TSLA) on StockTwits + Twitter late last month, I soon realized that I was wrong on TSLA. What I mistook for topping action was actually just a pause before this latest, new high. The uptrend continues...
Elon Musk discusses creativity, entrepreneurship and a new mode of travel (hyperloop) at Pando Monthly.
TED chats with Elon Musk: The mind behind Tesla, SpaceX, and SolarCity.
Disclosure: as of this posting, I have no position in TSLA (and I have had no prior positions in TSLA) and am watching from the sidelines. This may change at any time. If any follow-up posts coincide with my holding a position (long or short) in the stock or in TSLA options, this will be noted within said posts.
As you can see from the daily and weekly charts, the runaway move started in April when TSLA broke out above the $40 level on large volume (over 7 times its daily avg. volume). TSLA soon consolidated that move and continued higher, amidst a stream of exciting announcements and a growing wave of "Elon mania" (see recent interviews, videos below), to its most recent prior peak in late May.
As of today, TSLA is up over 165% from its April 1 closing price.
After noting some weakness in several leading stocks (including TSLA) on StockTwits + Twitter late last month, I soon realized that I was wrong on TSLA. What I mistook for topping action was actually just a pause before this latest, new high. The uptrend continues...
Elon Musk discusses creativity, entrepreneurship and a new mode of travel (hyperloop) at Pando Monthly.
TED chats with Elon Musk: The mind behind Tesla, SpaceX, and SolarCity.
Disclosure: as of this posting, I have no position in TSLA (and I have had no prior positions in TSLA) and am watching from the sidelines. This may change at any time. If any follow-up posts coincide with my holding a position (long or short) in the stock or in TSLA options, this will be noted within said posts.
Monday, May 20, 2013
Hitchhiking across America: embracing optionality and risk
Have you ever wanted to spend a month hitchhiking your way across country, or see the American landscape pass by from the inside of a freight train boxcar?
In the Vice documentary series, How to Hitchhike Across America: Thumbs Up, artist David Choe and his friend/nephew Harry Kim show us how to do just that.
Note: You can watch the full series by clicking through to the next episode link at the end of each clip.
I started watching this series on YouTube without any real expectations and was sucked in. The two start off hopping a freight train out of Los Angeles. As they make their way, slowly, to Las Vegas, we hear a bit of back story on David's life and their immediate plans for the trip.
While I won't give away all the details of their trip, I will say this: only in America can you hop out of a freight train boxcar and walk right over to your comped room at the Venetian.
Now, what I didn't know until after I started watching is that David Choe is a rather well-known graffiti artist and painter. In fact, back in 2005 Choe was hired by Sean Parker to paint some "graphic" murals on the walls of Facebook's first Silicon Valley office. David took company stock in lieu of cash for his efforts. Those shares were worth $200 million at the time of Facebook's IPO (about 5 years after this series aired).
As you watch David and Harry make their way across country, you begin to notice a theme. Aside from their most immediate concerns - finding a place to sleep, hitching a ride to the next town - there is no preplanned structure to their days. If the guys see an opportunity to have some fun or meet someone new, they take it.
Sure, there's a great deal of risk in this style of travel. When they're not avoiding cops or railway security guards, the guys discuss their fears of being mugged or raped, while also acknowledging the fear most drivers have of them. It's not easy hitching a ride from strangers in a time when, as one of their new pals offers, "the media has us scared of each others' shadows".
David and Harry and their fellow travelers have embraced these risks and try to meet them as best they can, while opening their lives to a sense of freedom and optionality. They go where they want and they can take the odd detour on their way if they so choose. In this, they might find approval from Antifragile author, Nassim Taleb, who argues for an anti-fragile world of "many highway exits and options" (more on that here).
While I watched their (well-edited) adventure unfold, I wondered about the benefits of such of a lifestyle. Although these two can probably choose to dip in and out of the hobo life at will, maybe they're gaining an insight into America, and life, that some of us may never have. Is it possible their serendipitous travels and approach to life might open up opportunities that may never have come if they were shackled to their work desk or stuck inside a corporate office?
While we ponder that, I'll leave you with this quote (thanks Wikipedia!):
Your life is your own unique canvas. Try to paint something you'd want to see.
In the Vice documentary series, How to Hitchhike Across America: Thumbs Up, artist David Choe and his friend/nephew Harry Kim show us how to do just that.
Note: You can watch the full series by clicking through to the next episode link at the end of each clip.
I started watching this series on YouTube without any real expectations and was sucked in. The two start off hopping a freight train out of Los Angeles. As they make their way, slowly, to Las Vegas, we hear a bit of back story on David's life and their immediate plans for the trip.
While I won't give away all the details of their trip, I will say this: only in America can you hop out of a freight train boxcar and walk right over to your comped room at the Venetian.
Now, what I didn't know until after I started watching is that David Choe is a rather well-known graffiti artist and painter. In fact, back in 2005 Choe was hired by Sean Parker to paint some "graphic" murals on the walls of Facebook's first Silicon Valley office. David took company stock in lieu of cash for his efforts. Those shares were worth $200 million at the time of Facebook's IPO (about 5 years after this series aired).
As you watch David and Harry make their way across country, you begin to notice a theme. Aside from their most immediate concerns - finding a place to sleep, hitching a ride to the next town - there is no preplanned structure to their days. If the guys see an opportunity to have some fun or meet someone new, they take it.
Sure, there's a great deal of risk in this style of travel. When they're not avoiding cops or railway security guards, the guys discuss their fears of being mugged or raped, while also acknowledging the fear most drivers have of them. It's not easy hitching a ride from strangers in a time when, as one of their new pals offers, "the media has us scared of each others' shadows".
David and Harry and their fellow travelers have embraced these risks and try to meet them as best they can, while opening their lives to a sense of freedom and optionality. They go where they want and they can take the odd detour on their way if they so choose. In this, they might find approval from Antifragile author, Nassim Taleb, who argues for an anti-fragile world of "many highway exits and options" (more on that here).
While I watched their (well-edited) adventure unfold, I wondered about the benefits of such of a lifestyle. Although these two can probably choose to dip in and out of the hobo life at will, maybe they're gaining an insight into America, and life, that some of us may never have. Is it possible their serendipitous travels and approach to life might open up opportunities that may never have come if they were shackled to their work desk or stuck inside a corporate office?
While we ponder that, I'll leave you with this quote (thanks Wikipedia!):
"It has often been said that Choe's greatest artwork is his own life. As his friend Jason Jaworski explained, "For me, there is no artwork Dave or anyone can create that is capable of completely equalling the vast canvas of Dave's life, which he paints daily while simply living."
Your life is your own unique canvas. Try to paint something you'd want to see.
Tuesday, April 2, 2013
Bitcoin crosses $100 mark in latest surge
Bitcoin, the virtual currency on everyone's lips, surged through the $100 mark this week.
Bitcoin is currently trading at $117.2 on Mt. Gox (click through for current quotes and market depth), one of the most liquid bitcoin exchanges. Having traded near $15 in early January, bitcoins are now up over 750 percent in US dollar terms year to date.
Here's a chart of the bitcoin/Euro price, currently at €92.18 on Mt. Gox. Interest in the bitcoin market recently exploded across Europe as Cyprus' banking crisis led savers to wonder if their bank deposits would be seized to help bail out ailing banks.
As the New Yorker explains in their piece on, "The Bitcoin Boom":
I've been reading and tweeting about bitcoins and the future of virtual currencies quite a bit in recent months. Recent events seem to have sparked a great deal of interest in this area, even for those (like myself) who have yet to transact in the virtual currency market.
We've seen a previous boom and bust cycle in Bitcoin prices, with a passing media frenzy ("it's a bubble!", "an unregulated ponzi scheme!") to match. The last peak in Google web search interest came in June 2011, amidst official alarm over the "untraceable peer-to-peer currency's" alleged role in online money laundering and the drug trade.
Now that we're seeing a near-parabolic rise in bitcoin prices across the globe, we can probably expect another new peak and cyclical crash (or maybe a slightly calmer consolidation period) to follow soon.
However, if the decentralized issuance of bitcoins remains steady over time, we could see a flourishing market for virtual currencies develop longer-term. Whether it's Bitcoin or some other innovation that stands the test of time, we'll be watching this trend with interest. On that note, I'll leave with you with the following quotes.
Bitcoin is currently trading at $117.2 on Mt. Gox (click through for current quotes and market depth), one of the most liquid bitcoin exchanges. Having traded near $15 in early January, bitcoins are now up over 750 percent in US dollar terms year to date.
Here's a chart of the bitcoin/Euro price, currently at €92.18 on Mt. Gox. Interest in the bitcoin market recently exploded across Europe as Cyprus' banking crisis led savers to wonder if their bank deposits would be seized to help bail out ailing banks.
As the New Yorker explains in their piece on, "The Bitcoin Boom":
"...That a number of panicked Europeans appear to have reckoned the wildly volatile, vulnerable, and tiny bitcoin market a preferable alternative to their own banking system, even temporarily, signals a serious widening of the cracks between the northern and southern E.U. countries in the wake of the euro-zone debt crisis.
It also illustrates the broader collapse of trust that is threatening the world of global banking and fiat money. The weakness in existing currencies stems from lack of faith in institutions—particularly central banks, which are often in league with commercial and investment banks.
When a government bails out a failed bank or insurance company—in essence, by printing money—the net effect is that the currency as a whole is debased, in favor of a few and at the literal expense of everyone else, which amounts to a fair description of today’s global financial system. Hence the sudden appeal of bitcoins, which appear, for the moment, at least, to be immune to the machinations of inept or crooked bankers and politicians."
I've been reading and tweeting about bitcoins and the future of virtual currencies quite a bit in recent months. Recent events seem to have sparked a great deal of interest in this area, even for those (like myself) who have yet to transact in the virtual currency market.
We've seen a previous boom and bust cycle in Bitcoin prices, with a passing media frenzy ("it's a bubble!", "an unregulated ponzi scheme!") to match. The last peak in Google web search interest came in June 2011, amidst official alarm over the "untraceable peer-to-peer currency's" alleged role in online money laundering and the drug trade.
Now that we're seeing a near-parabolic rise in bitcoin prices across the globe, we can probably expect another new peak and cyclical crash (or maybe a slightly calmer consolidation period) to follow soon.
However, if the decentralized issuance of bitcoins remains steady over time, we could see a flourishing market for virtual currencies develop longer-term. Whether it's Bitcoin or some other innovation that stands the test of time, we'll be watching this trend with interest. On that note, I'll leave with you with the following quotes.
"Encrypted currency is at the Altair development stage. If Bitcoin isn't actually the Apple II, we're very close" @kevincarson1
— Guillaume Lebleu (@giyom) August 25, 2011
"Bitcoin is the beginning of something great: a currency without a government, something necessary and imperative." - @nntaleb
— David Shvartsman (@FinanceTrends) March 24, 2013
Tuesday, March 26, 2013
Great, free alternative to Google Reader: The Old Reader
Needed to find a new RSS reader in the wake of Google's recent decision to kill off Google Reader, which takes effect on July 1. I'm guessing some of you are still hunting for an ideal replacement too.
After some initial reading and experimentation, I've decided to go with The Old Reader, the best free alternative styled after, wait for it... the old Google Reader. You can see a screenshot of the reader (and my newly imported RSS subscriptions) below.
Since the Old Reader development team (a small, volunteer crew) was caught off guard by Google's announcement and the influx of new users, there was a queue for new users importing feeds into TOR (see: "How to export your Google Reader feeds").
If you want to import your feeds into The Old Reader, you'll probably be placed in the queue but it shouldn't take more than a week or so. In the meantime, you might want to try some of the other Google Reader alternatives for Mac, PC, and mobile users.
Personally, I found patience to be a virtue here, even though I was just experimenting with the import of a small RSS list (I'm sure I could've just as easily added my RSS subscriptions manually). I really like the simple, clean layout and interface of The Old Reader - it's my favorite of the lot.
Hope this RSS solution helps you out, and don't forget to subscribe to our feed to keep up with the latest.
After some initial reading and experimentation, I've decided to go with The Old Reader, the best free alternative styled after, wait for it... the old Google Reader. You can see a screenshot of the reader (and my newly imported RSS subscriptions) below.
Since the Old Reader development team (a small, volunteer crew) was caught off guard by Google's announcement and the influx of new users, there was a queue for new users importing feeds into TOR (see: "How to export your Google Reader feeds").
If you want to import your feeds into The Old Reader, you'll probably be placed in the queue but it shouldn't take more than a week or so. In the meantime, you might want to try some of the other Google Reader alternatives for Mac, PC, and mobile users.
Personally, I found patience to be a virtue here, even though I was just experimenting with the import of a small RSS list (I'm sure I could've just as easily added my RSS subscriptions manually). I really like the simple, clean layout and interface of The Old Reader - it's my favorite of the lot.
Hope this RSS solution helps you out, and don't forget to subscribe to our feed to keep up with the latest.
Wednesday, November 14, 2012
Dell: a '90s market leader digests its prior gains
Happened to glance at the daily chart of DELL today.
While I wouldn't be surprised if the stock caught a bit of a bounce into 2013 (once year-end tax loss selling is exhausted), I'm not exactly bullish on the longer-term picture for DELL.
Here's why, from a purely technical (price) view. Backing up to the weekly chart, we see DELL approaching its early 2009 lows near the $7.85 - $9 levels. If it can hold above those lows and rebound higher after a dismal 2012, that would provide a cyclical respite from what has been an overall bearish trend since early 2000. However, even a months-long rebound and a 50%-60% rise wouldn't negate the longer-term bearish trend.
Zooming out to the monthly chart, we see the secular bullish trend that took DELL from an adjusted price of $0.09 in 1990 to a high of over $50 (a 600-fold increase) by the bull market peak of early 2000.
During this nearly-unprecedented boom, DELL was a market leader among US stocks. The company reached a peak market cap. of $100 billion in March 2000 and its stock gained over 60,000 percent in the 10 years prior.
After the dot-com bubble crashed in 2000-2001, the stock made a valiant effort to regain its old highs, climbing back to the low $40s in the bull move of 2004-2005. It was not enough, as the secular bear trend and an ever-changing tech environment continue to take their toll on DELL. We can see the ensuing decline on the monthly chart above.
When I look at DELL's 23-year chart, I see a fallen leader slowly digesting the monster gains of a secular bull move. In fact, it reminds me of a python digesting a very large meal - lots of time and rest are required to complete the process.
If you are squeamish, please don't click the python link. Nature, like the markets, can appear to be very cruel at times.
While I wouldn't be surprised if the stock caught a bit of a bounce into 2013 (once year-end tax loss selling is exhausted), I'm not exactly bullish on the longer-term picture for DELL.
Here's why, from a purely technical (price) view. Backing up to the weekly chart, we see DELL approaching its early 2009 lows near the $7.85 - $9 levels. If it can hold above those lows and rebound higher after a dismal 2012, that would provide a cyclical respite from what has been an overall bearish trend since early 2000. However, even a months-long rebound and a 50%-60% rise wouldn't negate the longer-term bearish trend.
Zooming out to the monthly chart, we see the secular bullish trend that took DELL from an adjusted price of $0.09 in 1990 to a high of over $50 (a 600-fold increase) by the bull market peak of early 2000.
During this nearly-unprecedented boom, DELL was a market leader among US stocks. The company reached a peak market cap. of $100 billion in March 2000 and its stock gained over 60,000 percent in the 10 years prior.
After the dot-com bubble crashed in 2000-2001, the stock made a valiant effort to regain its old highs, climbing back to the low $40s in the bull move of 2004-2005. It was not enough, as the secular bear trend and an ever-changing tech environment continue to take their toll on DELL. We can see the ensuing decline on the monthly chart above.
When I look at DELL's 23-year chart, I see a fallen leader slowly digesting the monster gains of a secular bull move. In fact, it reminds me of a python digesting a very large meal - lots of time and rest are required to complete the process.
If you are squeamish, please don't click the python link. Nature, like the markets, can appear to be very cruel at times.
Thursday, November 1, 2012
Sayonara Panasonic, hello Samsung and Apple?
Taking a look at the charts of Panasonic and Sony today, in light of Panasonic's $9.6 billion loss for the year ($25 billion in losses over five years) and the steadily eroding Japanese consumer electronics business.
While Panasonic, Sony, and Sharp have been getting killed in the TV and electronics marketplace (and in the share market) over the past few years, others have prospered.
Apple, which is increasingly seen as more of a design-focused electronics maker, as opposed to a computer company, has seen its stock price quadruple in price over the last five years.
The US design-meets-Chinese manufacturing combo has helped Apple out-innovate its competitors and undercut their cost structure. A strong yen has also hindered exports of Japanese electronics.
Samsung has been rising to the top and is now dominating the smartphone market along with Apple. In fact, the two now account for 106 percent of handset profits. That's right, the total is greater than 100% when offsetting losses of the other handset makers.
So while the Japanese firms (who ate everybody's lunch in the '70s and '80s) struggle, Apple, Samsung, and US-based Vizio are making hay. Look no further than the charts above; they clearly show the shift towards the dominance of Korean and US firms (aided by low-cost foreign manufacturing) in electronics.
So if you're trading or investing in an industry, and you see a trend unfold like this, be sure to go long or short along the line of least resistance - that's with the trend and not against it.
While Panasonic, Sony, and Sharp have been getting killed in the TV and electronics marketplace (and in the share market) over the past few years, others have prospered.
Apple, which is increasingly seen as more of a design-focused electronics maker, as opposed to a computer company, has seen its stock price quadruple in price over the last five years.
The US design-meets-Chinese manufacturing combo has helped Apple out-innovate its competitors and undercut their cost structure. A strong yen has also hindered exports of Japanese electronics.
Samsung has been rising to the top and is now dominating the smartphone market along with Apple. In fact, the two now account for 106 percent of handset profits. That's right, the total is greater than 100% when offsetting losses of the other handset makers.
So while the Japanese firms (who ate everybody's lunch in the '70s and '80s) struggle, Apple, Samsung, and US-based Vizio are making hay. Look no further than the charts above; they clearly show the shift towards the dominance of Korean and US firms (aided by low-cost foreign manufacturing) in electronics.
So if you're trading or investing in an industry, and you see a trend unfold like this, be sure to go long or short along the line of least resistance - that's with the trend and not against it.
Thursday, October 18, 2012
Google earnings: surprise!
A profit decline vs. last year's 3rd quarter for Intel (INTC) was followed today by a surprise (prematurely leaked) report from Google (GOOG). The early, and disappointing, 3Q report sent GOOG into a midday plunge, down 9% before trading in the stock was halted.
Sunday, September 30, 2012
Peter Thiel and Reid Hoffman talk Silicon Valley, hits and misses
High profile Valley startup founders Peter Thiel and Reid Hoffman (of Paypal/Facebook and LinkedIn, respectively) discuss innovation in Silicon Valley, the coming mobile economy, and their greatest hits and misses in this Forbes video interview.
Related posts:
1. Elon Musk and Peter Thiel on entrepreneurship and creativity.
2. Mark Cuban: How to Get Rich + Success and Motivation.
3. Steve Jobs: Billion Dollar Hippy (BBC documentary).
Wednesday, September 19, 2012
Humans vs. algos: Mike Bellafiore on the future of trading
A few notable quotes and points from Bella's interview:
1. Bella and his traders don't look at the current environment as "man vs. machine".
Instead, they trade around the computers. Most of the advantage that "black box" programs or algorithms have are based on micro-scalping, trading for sub-penny moves. SMB Capital traders have changed their methods, extended their trading time frames, and are adapting to the current market structure.
2. Play your own game. As Mike says, "Do your own thing, let the computers do their thing. Don't play that [computer's] game. Play a game that trades on a longer time frame. Find the trades that work for you."
3. On the large percentage of daily trading volume on US markets that is high-frequency trading (HFT) or machine-based:
"We used to have market makers and they don't exist anymore. The HFTs became the market makers, but they're trying to make a penny or two cents. You're not trying to do that as a retail investor, you're trying to buy a stock because you have a thesis on it [holding for a directional trade or investment while managing your risk]".
4. Finally, Bella acknowledges the coming wave of exchange consolidations and technologies that will open up new opportunities in electronic trading.
Increased access to new, international markets will increase our opportunities as traders, since patterns and underlying psychology will repeat themselves in other markets.
Additionally, traders will learn to create their own automated programs to take advantage of new market opportunities. The future of speculation will be one in which traders apply techniques in their home markets to equity markets abroad, while also reaching into new products and asset classes.
Enjoy the interview, and ask yourself how you might prepare for the changes and opportunities ahead in a "smaller, and more connected" trading world.
Related posts:
1. Interview with Michael Bigger, trader and author.
2. Mark Minervini interview: define and refine your approach.
Wednesday, September 12, 2012
Steve Jobs - Billion Dollar Hippy (BBC documentary)
Steve Jobs' brilliant life and entrepreneurial career are profiled in this BBC documentary, "Steve Jobs - Billion Dollar Hippy".
Today is a big media day for Apple, given the hype surrounding the release of the new iPhone 5. A fine time to look back on the Silicon Valley landscape of the 1970s and the counterculture and tech hobbyist environments which inspired Steve Jobs and Steve Wozniak to start their own little computer company (now valued at over $600 billion dollars, market cap).
This is a great overview of Jobs' rise and fall at Apple, his entries into the realms of interpersonal computing and filmmaking at NeXT and Pixar, and his triumphant return to Apple that kickstarted its reinvention as a design-focused electronics company.
Enjoy the video, and check out our related items below for more on Steve Jobs and the tech revolution.
Related posts:
1. Steve Jobs PBS interview from 1990, rarely seen.
2. Interview: Steve Jobs and Bill Gates at D5.
Tuesday, September 4, 2012
Elon Musk and Peter Thiel on entrepreneurship + creativity
Elon Musk (PayPal, Tesla Motors, SpaceX) and Peter Thiel (PayPal, Facebook, Palantir) discuss entrepreneurship, capitalism, creativity, the educational system, and their own experiences building innovative companies in these PandoMonthly interviews.
Monday, June 18, 2012
Patents and copyright? "Great artists steal"
Came across this clip of Apple CEO, Tim Cook complaining that the ongoing tech patent wars are a "pain in the ass".
Granted, this is a topic that's recently been covered by Mark Cuban, or going farther back, by Bastiat in his "Three Stages of Invention".
However, one could look beyond Tim Cook's complaints to examine the very idea of the supposed necessity of patents and copyrights. The book, Against Intellectual Monopoly does just that, arguing: "Patents and copyrights do not promote economic progress but impede it."
Note this passage, from the same book, which calls attention to the fact that patents can block the market's progress by preventing product imitation, development, and refinement:
Without Matisse, would we know Picasso? Steve Jobs quoting Picasso: "good artists copy, great artists steal."
Granted, this is a topic that's recently been covered by Mark Cuban, or going farther back, by Bastiat in his "Three Stages of Invention".
However, one could look beyond Tim Cook's complaints to examine the very idea of the supposed necessity of patents and copyrights. The book, Against Intellectual Monopoly does just that, arguing: "Patents and copyrights do not promote economic progress but impede it."
Note this passage, from the same book, which calls attention to the fact that patents can block the market's progress by preventing product imitation, development, and refinement:
"Imitation is a great thing. It is among the most powerful technologies humans have ever developed … imitation is a technology that allows us to increase productive capacity. Innovators increase productive capacity directly...".
Without Matisse, would we know Picasso? Steve Jobs quoting Picasso: "good artists copy, great artists steal."
Friday, April 20, 2012
Arthur C. Clarke predicts the internet and PCs
Arthur C. Clarke forecasts the future of 2001, a time when home computers and interconnectivity with others through technology are commonplace (via Eddie Markets).
Monday, April 9, 2012
Monday, January 9, 2012
Netflix melt-up and Google breakdown
Chart update on Google ($GOOG). After breaking out nicely above longer-term resistance near $645, $GOOG has spent the last few days giving back those gains and more.
Today we saw $GOOG open with a gap down at $646.50 and it quickly slid downhill from there, ending the day at $622.46 (-4.2%).
As Reuters reports, Google took a slide after Motorola Mobility ($MMI) warned of lower-than-expected earnings, which prompted worries over Google's entrance into the hardware side of the smartphone market via their Motorola acquisition. So we've gone from breakout to correction mode in just a few short days.
Meanwhile, Netflix ($NFLX) continued its recent melt-up, surging 13.8% higher today.
The market seemed excited about Netflix streaming services crossing the Atlantic to Britain and Ireland. Not to mention the short-covering rally that ensued. As the article above points out, $NFLX is up 40% in the first five trading days of the year - so much for dour 2012 predictions.
Look for a potential gap fill play back to $115 in the near-term. If Netflix can keep building momentum in their business through the first part of the year, maybe they'll be able to regain some share momentum and slowly heal the memory of last summer's DVD vs. streaming split debacle.
I've not been following Netflix closely in recent months, but I have been eyeing the chart in recent days and will continue to watch it here. You can hear more about their vision for the future in this Charlie Rose interview with Netflix CEO, Reed Hastings. We'll see if they execute.
Disclosure: I have no current positions in either $NFLX or $GOOG, nor have I had any position in either stock in recent weeks. Readers will be alerted to any future long or short positions I hold in individual equity names mentioned, if those positions are held at the time of writing.
Nothing here should be taken as a recommendation to buy or sell securities. These posts are strictly for educational purposes and a market journaling exercise. Thank you for reading.
Today we saw $GOOG open with a gap down at $646.50 and it quickly slid downhill from there, ending the day at $622.46 (-4.2%).
As Reuters reports, Google took a slide after Motorola Mobility ($MMI) warned of lower-than-expected earnings, which prompted worries over Google's entrance into the hardware side of the smartphone market via their Motorola acquisition. So we've gone from breakout to correction mode in just a few short days.
Meanwhile, Netflix ($NFLX) continued its recent melt-up, surging 13.8% higher today.
The market seemed excited about Netflix streaming services crossing the Atlantic to Britain and Ireland. Not to mention the short-covering rally that ensued. As the article above points out, $NFLX is up 40% in the first five trading days of the year - so much for dour 2012 predictions.
Look for a potential gap fill play back to $115 in the near-term. If Netflix can keep building momentum in their business through the first part of the year, maybe they'll be able to regain some share momentum and slowly heal the memory of last summer's DVD vs. streaming split debacle.
I've not been following Netflix closely in recent months, but I have been eyeing the chart in recent days and will continue to watch it here. You can hear more about their vision for the future in this Charlie Rose interview with Netflix CEO, Reed Hastings. We'll see if they execute.
Disclosure: I have no current positions in either $NFLX or $GOOG, nor have I had any position in either stock in recent weeks. Readers will be alerted to any future long or short positions I hold in individual equity names mentioned, if those positions are held at the time of writing.
Nothing here should be taken as a recommendation to buy or sell securities. These posts are strictly for educational purposes and a market journaling exercise. Thank you for reading.
Saturday, November 26, 2011
Steve Jobs interview from 1990, recently surfaced
Watch An Interview With Steve Jobs on PBS. See more from NOVA.
Steve Jobs talks about the future of computing in a rare 50 minute TV interview aired on PBS.
When asked how computers have changed civilization, Steve begins by noting how humans were able to leapfrog the more efficient locomotion of other animal species by using tools, or technology.
Offering the example of how a human on a bicycle could easily surpass the locomotive advantage of the most efficient animal, a condor, Jobs concludes:
"We humans are tool-builders. And we can fashion tools that amplify these inherent abilities that we have to spectacular magnitudes. So for me, a computer has always been a bicycle of the mind: something that takes us far beyond our inherent abilities. I think we're just at the early stages of this tool."
You can see by the re-do of his 1st interview response that Steve was always "on message" and rehearsing and delivering the exact points he wanted to make when selling his vision of how we use technology and Apple products.
It also highlights the fact that modern TV interviews are often actually rehearsed, taped, and edited performances, rather than the more spontaneous give-and-take than the finished product tries to convey.. Steve could see this, and he crafted his message to the medium, whether he was out on his own at NeXT or selling to a larger consumer market for Apple.
Enjoy the discussion and insights, and see our related posts for more on Steve Jobs.
Related articles and posts.
1. Interview: Steve Jobs and Bill Gates at D5 conference - Finance Trends.
2. In Charts: Apple (AAPL) vs. Microsoft (MSFT) - Finance Trends.
Thursday, November 10, 2011
Facebook's Mark Zuckerberg interview w/ Charlie Rose
Charlie Rose interviews Facebook's Mark Zuckerberg and COO Sheryl Sandberg in an hour-long discussion on the future of the social web and the impact of social media.
Interesting chat and here's one noteworthy comment from Mark on the need for engineers in our new economy: "My #1 piece of advice [for young students & job seekers] is you should learn how to program".
Also, some discussion of American entrepreneurship, risk-taking, and innovation.
Check it out.
Tuesday, September 20, 2011
New: Finance Trends mobile reader view
Finance Trends mobile readers: you can now easily access our new mobile view on your iPad, iPhone, Berry, or Android device (courtesy of Blogger).
Here's what individual posts look like in our mobile site view:
Right now we're leaving the mobile view as an option, rather than a default, for our mobile visitors.
If you're a mobile reader and you'd like to see this mobile view as the default view during your visits, please leave us some feedback. For now, I'll work on providing a mobile link icon near the top right portion of our sidebar column. Thanks!
Here's what individual posts look like in our mobile site view:
Right now we're leaving the mobile view as an option, rather than a default, for our mobile visitors.
If you're a mobile reader and you'd like to see this mobile view as the default view during your visits, please leave us some feedback. For now, I'll work on providing a mobile link icon near the top right portion of our sidebar column. Thanks!
Tuesday, August 30, 2011
In charts: Apple (AAPL) vs. Microsoft (MSFT)
Here's a look at some charts shared recently on Chart.ly and StockTwits. Think of it as a quick follow up to our Steve Jobs and Bill Gates post from last Friday, looking back on 30 years of technology innovation.
The long view of Apple: monthly chart of AAPL stock price dating back to 1984. That's shortly after the Mac was introduced (click to enlarge chart).
The following chart shows a comparison of Apple and Microsoft's share performance from 1986 (the year MSFT went public) to 2011.
On this timeframe, MSFT trounces AAPL from the early 1990s on to the dot.com bubble peak.
Still, Apple shares gain momentum in the 2000s, finishing the 25 year period with a more than 15,000% gain. Microsoft achieved a 25,000% gain in its stock price for the same period (down from its 1999 peak near the 50,000% mark).
Finally, we see the same two stocks measured from 1997, the year of Steve Jobs' return to the company he co-founded. The second act of Jobs at Apple was a wildly successful period for the company and its shares, as you can see from the chart below.
While MSFT's share price barely managed to keep its head above water in the post-dot.com bubble period, AAPL went on to slay the competition and innovated its way to a 7,000% return over 14 years.
For more on what both companies and their famous founders have accomplished over the last 30-odd years, check out our related posts below.
Related posts:
1. Interview: Steve Jobs and Bill Gates discuss careers, tech - Finance Trends.
2. MSFT and AAPL: a tale of two tickers - Finance Trends.
The long view of Apple: monthly chart of AAPL stock price dating back to 1984. That's shortly after the Mac was introduced (click to enlarge chart).
The following chart shows a comparison of Apple and Microsoft's share performance from 1986 (the year MSFT went public) to 2011.
On this timeframe, MSFT trounces AAPL from the early 1990s on to the dot.com bubble peak.
Still, Apple shares gain momentum in the 2000s, finishing the 25 year period with a more than 15,000% gain. Microsoft achieved a 25,000% gain in its stock price for the same period (down from its 1999 peak near the 50,000% mark).
Finally, we see the same two stocks measured from 1997, the year of Steve Jobs' return to the company he co-founded. The second act of Jobs at Apple was a wildly successful period for the company and its shares, as you can see from the chart below.
While MSFT's share price barely managed to keep its head above water in the post-dot.com bubble period, AAPL went on to slay the competition and innovated its way to a 7,000% return over 14 years.
For more on what both companies and their famous founders have accomplished over the last 30-odd years, check out our related posts below.
Related posts:
1. Interview: Steve Jobs and Bill Gates discuss careers, tech - Finance Trends.
2. MSFT and AAPL: a tale of two tickers - Finance Trends.
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