Tuesday, April 24, 2012

Last Bounce Coming?

I don’t want to sound vain but I did write last Sunday that both Apple and the market in general are due for rebound.  “I think from TA point of view Apple and the market in general is due for a bounce but such a rally should be sold.”

Yesterday I said: “What I find interesting is that we can consider it as test of previous lows which it did not break.  Now it should have a test of the previous highs, at least which is the theory. Only when that test fails and it reverses, we can short with confidence.

And there we have it all.

Apple blew away the street prediction with almost doubling its profit and the shares of Apple are up $ 40 in after market.  SPY is up over 0.5 %. Of course we will have to wait for the market to open tomorrow and much can change overnight. But taking everything into consideration, it is highly likely that we will have a re-test of the April 2 high before we roll over.  And this is precisely the reason I am not short yet. Hope you all are in cash and cushy!

DOW closed above the psychological 13000 mark and SPX gained almost half of yesterday’s loss. So there is not much downside momentum yet. They are keeping both the bulls and bears interested in the game.

It is tiring to repeat same thing every day and you may also be feeling bored reading the same stuff. But the objective is not to lose money and not to write something sensational like global conspiracy etc or scare the hell out of readers. We want to cut the noise and follow the confirmed trend. No fancy charts, no analog, no Elliot wave analysis, no macroeconomic bull s**t.

The bottom line is: stay on the sideline and stay in cash.

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