Happy New Year to you all! We've compiled some great year-end reviews for you, along with some worthwhile commentaries on the financial & social outlook for 2010.
1. Dave Barry's Year in Review: 2009 - Miami Herald.
2. Dud of a Decade - Chart of the Day via Bear Mountain Bull.
3. A Hell of a Decade - Peter Schiff at Campaign for Liberty.
4. Marc Faber shares his 2010 outlook on CNBC - Investment Postcards.
5. Ultimate Guide to 2010 Investment Outlooks - PragCap.
6. James Howard Kunstler: Forecast 2010 - Kunstler.com
7. Decade of Disruption: 4 part series - FT.com
8. Reflection and Introspection: Quotes - Financial Philosopher.
9. My Decade...Economically Speaking - Howard Lindzon.
Enjoy these links and we'll see you in 2010. Have a happy and healthy New Year.
Thursday, December 31, 2009
Wednesday, December 30, 2009
Pivot Capital report: China's Investment Boom
We mentioned a possible divergence of opinion between Niall Ferguson and Jim Chanos on the future of China's economic path in Monday's post, "Niall Ferguson: world tilts towards Asia" (although Niall does hedge quite a bit on possible outcomes for Asia & China towards the final paragraphs of his article).
Is China's economy sailing along thanks to a skillful implementation of government-directed "stimulus", or is the country's current prosperity and stated economic output merely a mirage?
Jim Chanos is on record saying that China is "Dubai times 1000" and that the government-directed economy is being propped up with phony GDP statistics. His firm, Kynikos Associates, has also been influenced by a report on China's economy from Pivot Capital Management:
"The Pivot Capital report was extremely popular in Chanos’s office and concluded, “We believe the coming slowdown in China has the potential to be a similar watershed event for world markets as the reversal of the U.S. subprime and housing boom.” "
I thought it would be insightful to follow-up Monday's post with a look at this research, so I'm currently reading Pivot Capital's report, "China's Investment Boom: the Great Leap into the Unknown" (pdf).
If you're inclined to read along and share your thoughts on China's economy with us, we'd appreciate it.
Is China's economy sailing along thanks to a skillful implementation of government-directed "stimulus", or is the country's current prosperity and stated economic output merely a mirage?
Jim Chanos is on record saying that China is "Dubai times 1000" and that the government-directed economy is being propped up with phony GDP statistics. His firm, Kynikos Associates, has also been influenced by a report on China's economy from Pivot Capital Management:
"The Pivot Capital report was extremely popular in Chanos’s office and concluded, “We believe the coming slowdown in China has the potential to be a similar watershed event for world markets as the reversal of the U.S. subprime and housing boom.” "
I thought it would be insightful to follow-up Monday's post with a look at this research, so I'm currently reading Pivot Capital's report, "China's Investment Boom: the Great Leap into the Unknown" (pdf).
If you're inclined to read along and share your thoughts on China's economy with us, we'd appreciate it.
Monday, December 28, 2009
Niall Ferguson: world tilts towards Asia
Niall Ferguson is out with a new opinion piece in the FT that discusses China, America, and "the decade the world tilted east".
"I am trying to remember now where it was, and when it was, that it hit me. Was it during my first walk along the Bund in Shanghai in 2005? Was it amid the smog and dust of Chonqing, listening to a local Communist party official describe a vast mound of rubble as the future financial centre of south-west China?
That was last year, and somehow it impressed me more than all the synchronised razzamatazz of the Olympic opening ceremony in Beijing. Or was it at Carnegie Hall only last month, as I sat mesmerised by the music of Angel Lam, the dazzlingly gifted young Chinese composer who personifies the Orientalisation of classical music?
I think maybe it was only then that I really got the point about this decade, just as it was drawing to a close: that we are living through the end of 500 years of western ascendancy."
Ferguson has been thinking and writing about the rise of China and the shaky state of the US' undeclared empire quite a bit lately. He now points out, citing economic research from Goldman Sachs, that China could surpass the US economy in terms of GDP by 2027.
The long-term trends of rapid industrialization in developing nations and the gradual transfer of wealth and economic influence towards Asia are undeniable. However, one has to wonder if the current strength of the Chinese economy and the effectiveness of its stimulus efforts are as solid as Ferguson seems to believe. On these points, he and hedge fund manager, Jim Chanos may disagree.
"I am trying to remember now where it was, and when it was, that it hit me. Was it during my first walk along the Bund in Shanghai in 2005? Was it amid the smog and dust of Chonqing, listening to a local Communist party official describe a vast mound of rubble as the future financial centre of south-west China?
That was last year, and somehow it impressed me more than all the synchronised razzamatazz of the Olympic opening ceremony in Beijing. Or was it at Carnegie Hall only last month, as I sat mesmerised by the music of Angel Lam, the dazzlingly gifted young Chinese composer who personifies the Orientalisation of classical music?
I think maybe it was only then that I really got the point about this decade, just as it was drawing to a close: that we are living through the end of 500 years of western ascendancy."
Ferguson has been thinking and writing about the rise of China and the shaky state of the US' undeclared empire quite a bit lately. He now points out, citing economic research from Goldman Sachs, that China could surpass the US economy in terms of GDP by 2027.
The long-term trends of rapid industrialization in developing nations and the gradual transfer of wealth and economic influence towards Asia are undeniable. However, one has to wonder if the current strength of the Chinese economy and the effectiveness of its stimulus efforts are as solid as Ferguson seems to believe. On these points, he and hedge fund manager, Jim Chanos may disagree.
Sunday, December 27, 2009
Interview: Greg Zuckerman (Greatest Trade Ever)
Matt Davio at MissTrade recently interviewed Gregory Zuckerman, writer and author of, The Greatest Trade Ever, a new book about the "short" subprime real estate trade and the fortunes made by speculators and investors like hedge fund manager John Paulson through their persistent effort in carrying out that trade.
After watching this interview and hearing all the great insights on what made John Paulson's trade a breakthrough winner for his firm & for his investors, I decided that Zuckerman's book should be at the top of my reading list. Can't wait to check it out.
Related articles and posts:
1. Lessons from John Paulson - Finance Trends.
2. 'Greatest Trade Ever' podcast w/ Gregory Zuckerman - Slate.
3. MissTrade "Trader Talk" interviews - Vimeo.
Thursday, December 24, 2009
Season's greetings!
Season's greetings to all. And of course, as is the holiday tradition here at Finance Trends, we like to celebrate with a Peanuts special. So here's, "A Charlie Brown Christmas". Enjoy!
Merry Christmas to everyone celebrating and a happy holiday season to all our readers and friends in the financial blogosphere. We'll see you over the weekend for more financial news and insights. Have a great holiday.
Tuesday, December 22, 2009
Indian TV interview with Marc Faber
Prieur at Investment Postcards has posted this Indian TV interview with Marc Faber.For a few highlights from this discussion, see my Twitter page for yesterday's Faber related tweets. Or, watch the 3 part interview and get it straight from the horse's mouth.
Lots of interesting comments on investing opportunities in India, the US' standard of living relative to emerging nations, values in the commodities arena, the future direction of US government bond yields, and more. Enjoy the clips.
Friday, December 18, 2009
Ben Bernanke: man of the year?
Time magazine has seen fit to honor Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke as its "Person of the Year".
Rather than waste my time (and yours) regurgitating their nonsense, I thought we'd take a quick look at some of the more interesting reactions to, and accurate appraisals of, this news. A short linkfest of Bernanke & Fed realism follows:
1. Person of the Year, My Foot! Bernanke "Failed Miserably", Says Chris Whalen - Tech Ticker.
2. A More Honest Look at Time Person of the Year Ben Bernanke - Wall St. Cheat Sheet.
3. Time Magazine's Kiss of Death: "You!" - Mish.
4. Time on Bernanke: The Peak of Central Banking? - Minyanville.
5. Ron Paul on Bernanke and the Fed - Jesse's Cafe.
6. Impoverisher of the Year - Mises Blog.
We should note that the Senate Banking Committee is backing Bernanke for a second term as Federal Reserve Chairman, with the debate over his renomination heading to the full senate in January.
What do you think? Should Bernanke stick around for a second term? Ponder that, and enjoy your weekend
Rather than waste my time (and yours) regurgitating their nonsense, I thought we'd take a quick look at some of the more interesting reactions to, and accurate appraisals of, this news. A short linkfest of Bernanke & Fed realism follows:
1. Person of the Year, My Foot! Bernanke "Failed Miserably", Says Chris Whalen - Tech Ticker.
2. A More Honest Look at Time Person of the Year Ben Bernanke - Wall St. Cheat Sheet.
3. Time Magazine's Kiss of Death: "You!" - Mish.
4. Time on Bernanke: The Peak of Central Banking? - Minyanville.
5. Ron Paul on Bernanke and the Fed - Jesse's Cafe.
6. Impoverisher of the Year - Mises Blog.
We should note that the Senate Banking Committee is backing Bernanke for a second term as Federal Reserve Chairman, with the debate over his renomination heading to the full senate in January.
What do you think? Should Bernanke stick around for a second term? Ponder that, and enjoy your weekend
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