Friday, February 1, 2013
Steve Jobs on failure
Steve Jobs on failure: "You've got to act... and you've got to be willing to crash and burn."
Apply to entrepreneurship, trading (try to manage risk to avoid complete crash and burn of your account), talking to that pretty girl... life.
Related posts:
1. Steve Jobs: Billion Dollar Hippy (BBC documentary).
2. Steve Jobs PBS interview from 1990, recently surfaced.
Thursday, January 31, 2013
1500 Breached, But Just Barely.
Well, SPX did not hold 1500 at close but after hours futures are up and my prognosis remains the same as yesterday. That we will chop around here for a while before the next move.
Gold and silver gave up all the gains of yesterday and that's exactly what I was afraid off.
Everything is churning and I find such situations quite frustrating and outright dangerous for the portfolio.
So we better go for skiing.
We will come back when it the time is right.
Subscribers will get the 1st glimpse this Sunday as to what the crystal ball is predicting. And if you would like to know, please join the gang. Time to join the February subscription runs out on Sunday.
Have fun folks.
Gold and silver gave up all the gains of yesterday and that's exactly what I was afraid off.
Everything is churning and I find such situations quite frustrating and outright dangerous for the portfolio.
So we better go for skiing.
We will come back when it the time is right.
Subscribers will get the 1st glimpse this Sunday as to what the crystal ball is predicting. And if you would like to know, please join the gang. Time to join the February subscription runs out on Sunday.
Have fun folks.
Rick Santelli Has It Right
"We are now Europe!" So said Rick Santelli on CNBC yesterday, as he responded to the negative GDP growth announcement for 4th quarter 2012. Santelli is right. We are now having the same silly discussions that go on routinely in Europe. We now think that somehow, someway the central bank can do something that makes it all better. And that somehow, someway, with sovereign debt exploding off into infinity, we can continue to spend and borrow our way to prosperity. It can't be done.
Economists have routinely become apologists for absurd economic policy, both in Europe and in the US. They often advocate raising minimum wages to increase employment. They have been in the forefront of advocacy for Obama policies that have brought the US economic recovery to its knees. Thank goodness for Santelli. He correctly notes that US sovereign debt problems are approaching Greek levels.
There was a time when US capitalism was the envy of the world. That time has passed. We are now simply a European basket case with all of the same problems that Greece, Spain and Italy have and for the same reasons. We are wealthier because of our free market history. But that is past history and we are now in a European present. Obama is succeeding in squeezing capitalism out of the US and the result is a stagnant, increasingly sick, economy on its way to modern day Greece and Spain.
Pretending that there is good news or economic strength in the worst economic recovery since the end of World War II is embarrassing. The facts on the ground are all to clear. The US is losing its pre-eminent position in the world economy and it is losing it at a fast clip. No amount of misleading news reporting by the American media can obscure the obvious fact of the decline of the American economic engine.
Three cheers for Santelli. He has it right.
Economists have routinely become apologists for absurd economic policy, both in Europe and in the US. They often advocate raising minimum wages to increase employment. They have been in the forefront of advocacy for Obama policies that have brought the US economic recovery to its knees. Thank goodness for Santelli. He correctly notes that US sovereign debt problems are approaching Greek levels.
There was a time when US capitalism was the envy of the world. That time has passed. We are now simply a European basket case with all of the same problems that Greece, Spain and Italy have and for the same reasons. We are wealthier because of our free market history. But that is past history and we are now in a European present. Obama is succeeding in squeezing capitalism out of the US and the result is a stagnant, increasingly sick, economy on its way to modern day Greece and Spain.
Pretending that there is good news or economic strength in the worst economic recovery since the end of World War II is embarrassing. The facts on the ground are all to clear. The US is losing its pre-eminent position in the world economy and it is losing it at a fast clip. No amount of misleading news reporting by the American media can obscure the obvious fact of the decline of the American economic engine.
Three cheers for Santelli. He has it right.
Wednesday, January 30, 2013
Will 1500 Hold?
We are coming close to end of the month and barring something unexpected, it will be a positive January. So we have every Jan. indicators positive. On the flip side, my upside target for SPX was 1510 and we have come few pennies away from that target. If we can close convincingly above 1510, then the next target is 1530. But I have my doubts that it will happen anytime soon.
Today SPX gave up about 6 points but still managed to close above 1500. As if it is now acting as a support. And I think it will move around this level (1500-1510) for a while.
Folks are now actually getting bullish. It seems retail investors are now returning to the market and are talking about their portfolio. I wonder at what stage of the sentiment cycle we are at.
Yes, I know, calling a top is fools errand and that's why I am not suggesting that we should short now. I am suggesting that we wait for confirmation for price action either way and wait for sell signal. As of now, we do not have any sell signal and the bull case is still strong. But again, it is late in the game to join the dance. May be we will be asked to shut the lights off because we would be late in the party. So better to wait and watch. Remember last Jan/Feb? Everyone was calling for top and shorting the market, only to get killed. This year is more of the same.
Commodities are also not doing much, just moving in a range. Today's spike in gold and silver is not convincing enough to go long again and it looks more like a pump and dump action. Till gold closes above$ 1700 and stays there, we could see more correction in prices.
Oil on the other hand can go up a little more but not much juice left for now.
All in all , we need to remember how to be patient in this market.
Good luck trading, folks.
Today SPX gave up about 6 points but still managed to close above 1500. As if it is now acting as a support. And I think it will move around this level (1500-1510) for a while.
Folks are now actually getting bullish. It seems retail investors are now returning to the market and are talking about their portfolio. I wonder at what stage of the sentiment cycle we are at.
Is it at the Hope stage? I don't think so. I think we are somewhere between Thrill and Wow, I am smart stage. And if my reading is correct, then we would chop around here a bit before a decent correction. Yes, I know that would be the fodder all the doomsdayers are waiting for but my Crystal ball can't see beyond next few months and can't tell me whether this is minor top or major top.
Commodities are also not doing much, just moving in a range. Today's spike in gold and silver is not convincing enough to go long again and it looks more like a pump and dump action. Till gold closes above$ 1700 and stays there, we could see more correction in prices.
Oil on the other hand can go up a little more but not much juice left for now.
All in all , we need to remember how to be patient in this market.
Good luck trading, folks.
State of Denial
The Obama Administration continues to trumpet the illusion that the economy is doing well. It isn't, Today's 4th quarter GDP numbers point to a declining GDP, not a growing GDP. The Obama enthusiasts in the media quickly found things within the report to like -- what else could they do? But, the undeniable fact is the economy is going nowhere.
If it were only the tax increases. But, there is so much more. Obamacare is kicking in and the EPA is clamping down hard on the economy. Meanwhile, Dodd-Frank implementation is destroying credit availability. The combination of all these things seems to get the Obama folks where they want to be -- the destruction of the American economic engine. They are succeeding. This morning's numbers bear testament. Stay tuned.
If it were only the tax increases. But, there is so much more. Obamacare is kicking in and the EPA is clamping down hard on the economy. Meanwhile, Dodd-Frank implementation is destroying credit availability. The combination of all these things seems to get the Obama folks where they want to be -- the destruction of the American economic engine. They are succeeding. This morning's numbers bear testament. Stay tuned.
Tuesday, January 29, 2013
The Managed Economy
There seems to be some euphoria surrounding the Obama White House that the economy may finally be on track. The stock market's behavior this month is a glowing chorus of approval, according to many observers. Perhaps, the economy can be managed after all. Perhaps, taxes and health care costs don't really matter after all. Perhaps, the collapse of Europe is irrelevant. Perhaps....
The cold reality, though, is that the numbers on the ground are still pitiful and have the potential to get worse. What little pulse the economy has is now an occasion for celebration in the White House. Strange. The American economy has historically provided 3 to 4 percent economic growth as the American middle class became the envy of the world.
Yes, the middle class has greatly improved its economic position over the last three decades. Only if employee benefits are left out of the calculation, which now amount to over 30 percent of employee compensation, can we reach the conclusion that the middle class is losing ground. The middle class was doing better than ever until 2009. Now, we have Obama. Good luck middle class!
In the new Obama economy, only those at the top of the stagecoach will do well -- the rich, the famous, the politically entrenched. Those who fight for jobs and profits in the private sector will remain under seige until the political climate changes....which won't be anytime soon with the retreat of the loyal opposition.
We have now entered the age of the "managed economy." The Fed combined with government subsidies to preferred friends have largely sucked out the marginal dollar from legitimate free market uses to political purposes. That spells no growth.
Businesses are still the enemy and they will remain the target of this administration. Don't expect any help from a Republican-controlled House of Representatives. The Republicans have fallen on their sword and should, deservedly, lose control of the House in 2014. They have lost the will to fight for anything other than social issues and are willing partners in the rush to expand government.
Don't expect much from the new "managed economy" other than the absence of economic growth and a large permanent underemployed and unemployed class of Americans.
The cold reality, though, is that the numbers on the ground are still pitiful and have the potential to get worse. What little pulse the economy has is now an occasion for celebration in the White House. Strange. The American economy has historically provided 3 to 4 percent economic growth as the American middle class became the envy of the world.
Yes, the middle class has greatly improved its economic position over the last three decades. Only if employee benefits are left out of the calculation, which now amount to over 30 percent of employee compensation, can we reach the conclusion that the middle class is losing ground. The middle class was doing better than ever until 2009. Now, we have Obama. Good luck middle class!
In the new Obama economy, only those at the top of the stagecoach will do well -- the rich, the famous, the politically entrenched. Those who fight for jobs and profits in the private sector will remain under seige until the political climate changes....which won't be anytime soon with the retreat of the loyal opposition.
We have now entered the age of the "managed economy." The Fed combined with government subsidies to preferred friends have largely sucked out the marginal dollar from legitimate free market uses to political purposes. That spells no growth.
Businesses are still the enemy and they will remain the target of this administration. Don't expect any help from a Republican-controlled House of Representatives. The Republicans have fallen on their sword and should, deservedly, lose control of the House in 2014. They have lost the will to fight for anything other than social issues and are willing partners in the rush to expand government.
Don't expect much from the new "managed economy" other than the absence of economic growth and a large permanent underemployed and unemployed class of Americans.
Monday, January 28, 2013
Bears Rejoice. Red SPX.
We had a red day with SPX and Dow but Nasdaq was green.
Obviously, all the financial bloggers are feeling happy because they can see the next crush just round the corner. Yet it was not even 3 points down. At this rate, unless something unexpected happens, January barometer will be positive.
So we have a positive Santa Clause Rally, The First Five Day was positive and most likely we will have the whole month of January positive. What does the past statistics say for that?
Well, I have this chart from Stock Trader's Almanac.
There is still plenty of time for things to go wrong and I do not recommend to buy in equities now because to move higher, we need a good pullback. My point is: a big correction is not the end of the world.
VIX raised its head above the water but I do not think it has completed its downward journey yet. May be soon and then bears will rejoice.
Let us therefore take things as they come and not have a pre-conceived notion as to how the year will end. Its been just four weeks out of 52 and lots of ups and downs will come. As of now, I see indices moving sideways and even making a higher high, before the fat lady sings.
Have a great evening folks.
Obviously, all the financial bloggers are feeling happy because they can see the next crush just round the corner. Yet it was not even 3 points down. At this rate, unless something unexpected happens, January barometer will be positive.
So we have a positive Santa Clause Rally, The First Five Day was positive and most likely we will have the whole month of January positive. What does the past statistics say for that?
Well, I have this chart from Stock Trader's Almanac.
There is still plenty of time for things to go wrong and I do not recommend to buy in equities now because to move higher, we need a good pullback. My point is: a big correction is not the end of the world.
VIX raised its head above the water but I do not think it has completed its downward journey yet. May be soon and then bears will rejoice.
Let us therefore take things as they come and not have a pre-conceived notion as to how the year will end. Its been just four weeks out of 52 and lots of ups and downs will come. As of now, I see indices moving sideways and even making a higher high, before the fat lady sings.
Have a great evening folks.
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