Steve Cohen on trading, global macro

If you caught our last post on Steve Cohen's ISI chat with Paul Tudor Jones (coverage courtesy of Dealbook), it's highly likely that you clicked through to read the details of Steven's interview.

Here's one item from that discussion that really grabbed my attention, Steve Cohen talking global macro:

"...Mr. Cohen, who said probably 25 percent of his investments were made outside the United States, has been emphasizing to his traders that global macro themes are more important than ever in investing.

For this reason he went to Davos, Switzerland, last month for the World Economic Forum and said that he found “the development of the next phase of the consumer economy in China is very intriguing.” He recognized that there “could be more situations like Egypt” and “you have something going on here that could be a tinderbox.”".

This piece of info really jumped out at me for a few reasons.

Firstly, as far as I know, Cohen has not been identified as a global macro trader in the past. SAC Capital seemed to grow from Cohen's roots in proprietary stock trading, with SAC's traders eventually taking on a larger role in fundamental analysis as time went on.

The fact that such a prominent, fundamental and technical-driven US stock trader is now stressing the importance of global macro themes and their influence on markets is quite noteworthy.

His recent comments to PTJ on the firm's growing exposure to international investments were also touched on in an earlier, 2008 interview with AR:

"...How much does SAC invest outside the U.S.?

[SC] Probably 15 to 20 percent of our activity is outside the U.S. There’s a lot of opportunity for growth in both Europe and Asia. The game is changing. Stock markets are starting to develop all over the world, and that creates opportunity...."

This brings to mind two separate interviews, with Passport Capital's John Burbank and California investor Michael Burry, that we shared last fall in our global macro post series. Both stressed the importance of international investing and the profound influence that global macro themes now have over US markets.

The observations made by Burry and Burbank were soon echoed by well-known hedge fund manager, David Einhorn, who noted the shift that had occurred in his investing style due to the impact of big picture, macro trends.

These interviews are a rare glimpse into the thinking of some of our most astute investors, and are all must hear/must read material. Hoping you will be informed by, and profit from, them.

Related articles and posts:

1. Must hear interview with John Burbank - Finance Trends.

2. Michael Burry: an up & coming macro star? - Finance Trends.

3. Macro themes dominate investing world - Finance Trends.

Bernanke is a Political Hack

Ben Bernanke is likely the worst Fed Chairman in US history and that's saying something. We have had some really bad ones, but none like this guy. He has now purchased nearly $ 400 billion of his $ 900 billion QE2 buying spree. If he doesn't buy, who will? That's a question that is getting asked a lot lately.

Now Ben has opined on the Dodd-Frank bill, probably the second worst piece of legislation in American history (Obamacare is the winner of the gold). Ben likes the Dodd-Frank bill, otherwise known as FinReg. FinReg is one of the key contributors to our high unemployment rates. So, I guess it is having an impact. It is certainly not irrelevant. The mountain of new rules, regulations and prohibitions have done their job. They have stifled credit creation and muzzled the financial system.

Ben and Obama have a lot in common. Their policies are both significant contributors to our current stagnation and high unemployment.

The Real Tragedy of State and Local Employees

State and local government employees face signficant layoffs and dramatic reductions in their benefit packages. Why? The unions claim that the reason is the stingy taxpayer, who, in most states, makes less average compensation than the employees that the taxpayer is funding. The real problem is excessive promises by the union leadership, encoded into law by governors, state legislatures and local governments. There has never been any realistic chance that these benefits could be paid for...never. This grand plan only worked as a ponzi scheme, providing benefits to the early recipients until the cold hard facts of demographics revealed the fraudulent nature of the promises.

The great tragedy is that all of this fooled the employees. They assumed that they would be provided abundant retirement income and medical benefits. Thus, there was no need to save. They could spend with abandon and they did. Now, the day of reckoning has arrived and there is no money to pay the promises of the past and no savings to make up for it. That is the real tragedy. People believed these false promises of government and thus did not save and prepare for the future. That is the main reason that the US has the lowest savings rate in the developed world. They think they will be bailed out. Now they are learning that there are no resources available to deal with this problem.

False promises abound in the entitlement arena. President Obama's refusal to address this problem in his recent budget demonstrates the cynicism of the modern American political leadership.

The Obama Budget

Apparently the Obama Administration has forgotten the results of the November election. The new Obama budget proposal unveiled this week brings back all of the same, tired, big government plans that the President has been pushing since the day he took office. It no longer matters to the President that the recovery is producing no jobs. He has grown used to that fact, apparently. Now, the President plans new spending initiatives to expand on policies that have few supporters even in his own party. The President is becoming more and more irrelevant. Perhaps that is the plan.

Meanwhile major budget cuts are being pushed by the President's opponents in the House of Representatives and even entitlement cuts are under consideration. While there may be zero presidential leadership, there are some good signs that the House of Representatives is not asleep and may supply the leadership that the White House seems incapable of providing.

The President seems bent on using today's fiscal crisis as an opportunity to force Republicans to make unpopular budget decisions. Then, I suppose, he will defend all of this spending and coast to a second term come next year. So much for Obama's view of "winning the future." His budget proposal is a sham.

SAC's Steve Cohen opens up to Paul Tudor Jones

SAC Capital chief, Steve Cohen opens up to fellow hedge fund legend Paul Tudor Jones in an ISI conference chat that was closed to the media, but reported on by Dealbook.

Here's the 411 from Dealbook:

"The founder of SAC Capital Advisers, the $12 billion hedge fund in Stamford, Conn., sat for a rare wide-ranging interview with Paul Tudor Jones, another hedge fund manager, where he discussed his favorite stocks and a whole lot more. The interview was part of a two-day conference at the Waldorf Astoria hotel in Midtown Manhattan sponsored by ISI, the Wall Street research firm...

Other than complaining about his bad back, Mr. Cohen is said to have appeared at ease during the hourlong conversation before a packed crowd. Mr. Jones, who joked that he was playing the role of Charlie Rose, pressed Mr. Cohen on a variety of topics but did not — no surprise — ask questions about the government’s insider trading charges against two of his former traders.

Mr. Cohen talked about how he got started as a trader, reading the stock tables in the daily newspaper as a child and hanging around the local brokerage firm near his house in Great Neck, N.Y. There “was something in my blood, something that I loved” about trading that has stayed with him... ".

This discussion must have been something to witness in the room. I'm just glad Dealbook has provided notes on this little chat between two modern-day trading legends. Check this one out, gang.

Related articles and posts:

1. Bloomberg profiles SAC's Steve Cohen - Finance Trends.

2. Paul Tudor Jones on trading macro - Finance Trends.

Alphatrends on headline noise and managing risk

In case you missed it, Brian Shannon's weekly market wrap from February 11 was a very worthwhile lesson in markets indeed.

Check out Brian's video and pay special attention to the comments on the market's reaction to geopolitical events, headline noise, and managing your risk in trading. A must see segment for all traders and investors.

Related articles and posts:

1. Howard Lindzon interviews James Altucher - StockTwits TV.

Egypt -- Politics and Economics

Now that Mubarak has left, the media is trumpeting that Egypt is now "free." That's not a likely result. The military, who has ousted Mubarek and assumed control, owns a huge share of Egyptian business and industry -- estimates range from one-third to to one-half of the entire Egyptian economy is directly owned by the group that now has power in Egypt. Will they give up that power? Not likely.

What this means is that economic freedom will remain in short supply in Egypt. New politicians will appear and there will be elections, but the things that can make a difference to the lives of ordinary Egyptians will not be on the ballot. Egyptians need economic development. They need the freedom to start new businesses, educate their children and live in an economy that produces jobs.

The fundamental need in Arab countries is economic freedom, not the right to vote themselves into an Iranian-like theocracy or a Venezuelan-like monocracy. This does not mean that Mubarak is better than democracy. Democracy is definitely better than Mubarak. Democracy, without economic freedom does not produce economic growth (even though economic freedom without democracy can produce economic growth -- check out Singapore and parts of modern day China).

The Arab lands need economic freedom for their citizenry. The curse of oil has robbed the Arab countries of a middle class and made every Arab country the land of the rich and poor. Education, economic freedom and economic opportunity are the ticket, not the right to choose between various opportunists looking to cash in on Egypt's new found freedom.

As long as the military is Egypt's savior, the Egyptian people cannot be saved.